Tenessee Williams was one of the greatest southern playrights, according to wikipedia and Elements of Literature book published in New York, New York (refer Campion College, class of 1999). His Gothic style and mendacity in 'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof' is something I can't really describe at this point of time. Glass menagerie of matriarch Laura is suffocating. It is according to wikipedia, Tennessee William's own story.
Breaking of glass is symbolic, twice seen in the movie. Amanda Wingfield (Katharine Hepburn)'s absolute control of her son Tom played by Sam Waterson is outrageous. Tom is a rebel but he loves his mom. He wants to be a writer (refer wikipedia) like myself.
Laura's (Joanne Miles) character is somewhat difficult to understand. She is reared as a Christian housewife. Amanda has been to college but Laura appears totally behind the northern avante garde movement. Jim (Michael Moriarty) and Tom want to stay ahead of the bunch. They want to take rhetoric classes even though Tom is forced to work in a garage.
I also want to see the other version with (if I am not wrong, Kiefer Sutherland ref. wikipedia). Music is demure, suited to the play.
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
When dragon snarls at eagle
-Pritam S Rana
FLASHPOINT
The United States, the world’s sole superpower and China, the economic giant and the emerging superpower, are natural adversaries. But the two countries have fought only once in a major conflict in recent history – The Korean War (1950-1953) – which resulted in a stalemate and a divided Korean peninsula. As China expands its economic power, its military too is being fed with increased budgetary allocations in a bid to modernize its armed forces. The US, on the other hand, has stretched its military forces wide across the globe, thanks to its global commitments. Washington is engaged fruitlessly in Iraq since 2003. Also, its efforts to tame opponents in Afghanistan since 2001 are also yet to succeed.
In East Asia, China has the most powerful military potential in terms of its massive population, geography, industrial capacity and sheer numbers of its armed forces personnel, which currently has 2.3 million active troops. Japan, the world’s number two economy and Washington’s chief ally in the region, although bound by a mutual security pact with the US since 1945, appears to be charting a fresh course for its foreign policy. The Japanese want to establish their own sphere of influence as evident of their wooing of other emerging powers like India. However, Japan is too weak to counter China alone. It would need US military assistance in any eventual showdown with China. Japan’s recent overtures toward India can be understood as its aim to build new alliances and reduce dependence on the US.
China is rapidly building up its military muscle. It is producing advanced combat aircraft, both of indigenous and foreign design. It also wants to build an indigenously designed aircraft carrier, a major naval force multiplier platform. China’s new aircraft carrier and its follow-ups shall boost its naval power once only equaled in the region by Imperial Japanese Navy of World War II era.
China’s traditional headache, Taiwan, although impressively armed with US weapons, is too weak to stand up to China’s military might. China has assembled a vast array of ballistic missiles ranged against Taiwan, which has the potential to paralyze Taiwan’s nerve centers in one lethal volley at short notice. The US supplied Patriot air defense batteries in Taiwanese service would be incapable of intercepting all but a few incoming Chinese warheads.
But it is not easy for China to seize Taiwan without facing massive resistance. The US, Taiwan’s traditional security gurantor, can block Chinese attempt to storm the breakaway island state. The US Pacific Fleet’s combat power is too awesome to allow Chinese ships to cross the Taiwan Straits from the mainland with ease. China also lacks a large airlift capability to mount a massive airborne operation against Taiwan. Even if China later acquires this capability, Taiwanese air force equipped with modern US and French made fighter jets, backed by US carrier based fighters, have the power to negate any such Chinese attempt to intrude Taiwanese airspace. Chinese generals, therefore, cannot hope to replicate Nazi Germany’s successful takeover of Crete in the Mediterranean at the heights of World War II (1941).
But the trend is moving toward China’s favor as it modernizes its armed forces by pouring more money from its economic success. China is rapidly inducting Russian made Su-27 ‘Flanker’, a fourth generation advanced fighter aircraft designed to best US F-15s, into its service. It is manufacturing these long endurance aircraft equipped with advanced avionics and deadly air-to-air missiles with license from cash hungry Russia. Russia is more than willing to sell advanced weaponry to China. Russia has also drastically boosted China’s ground based air defenses by supplying S300 air defense missiles systems, which also have ballistic missile defense capability.
In terms of quality military manpower, the US and Taiwan have the edge for now. For example, the US and Taiwanese pilots are better trained with more flying hours per year of training than their Chinese counterparts. But this trend is shifting as China’s new material prosperity allows it to pour more money into military training, maneuvers and more frequent rehearsals.
China and Russia recently conducted joint exercises in Chinese territory. Both Russia and China are also busy forming a counter alliance to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The new axis, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which pairs Russia and China along with some other Central Asian states, is rapidly seeking to recruit some other remaining states into its camp, instead of them joining NATO. It is to be seen if Moscow and China’s romance would also extend to the Far East.
Keeping in mind China’s growing airpower, the US deployed advanced, radar evading F-22 Raptor interceptors in Okinawa, Japan early this year. The F-22 has just entered US Air Force service and it is the US military’s top-of-the-line silver bullet fighter aircraft. However, there are only few of them around as they are extremely expensive, only US seems to be able to afford them. Analysts said the US wants to sell these advanced warplanes to Japan. Japan’s air force currently has US supplied F-15s as its frontline fighter aircraft, which can be matched or outclassed by China’s Su-27s.
The US can also count on the powerful Japanese navy in joint maneuvers against China in any regional conflict. However, as mentioned earlier, Japan’s hawkish government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Abe has resigned since) appeared to favor an independent foreign policy in recent times. It might indicate that Japan might choose not to intervene in any US-China conflict, triggered most likely by any flare-up in the Taiwan Straits. The current Japanese constitution also forbids military expeditions beyond Japanese home waters.
The most ghastly scenario would be if any armed conflict between the two giants, the US and China, extends to the Chinese mainland. The US and its ally Taiwan (provided Taiwan agrees to fight inside Chinese mainland) would fare to be caught in a protracted and costly war a.k.a. Iraq, which might eventually outlast US determination to fight. The Chinese mainland is favorable to Chinese government forces, where skillful propaganda by Beijing can portray the US as a foreign occupying power rather than any liberator of the Chinese people. The lessons of the Korean War should be too fresh in the minds of American civilian and military leaders if they choose to engage the Chinese military in their own homeland. The modern Taiwan also lacks the appeal to arouse public opinion in the mainland as it is rapidly moving toward formal independence, a break from its past Kuomintang ethos as a pan-Chinese political entity.
Despite indications that hint adversarial relationship, the US and China are firmly interlinked by trade and economic ties. Besides being the major trade partner of the US, China has bought US debt which allows financing of Washington’s war in Iraq and Afghanistan. China’s humungous foreign currency reserves which totaled some $1.33 trillion in June 2007, allows it to boost its military spending, which officially stood at $36.6 billion in 2006. The US and other observers disagree and say Beijing spends much more, perhaps two or three times more than the announced figure. The Americans and the Japanese are simply worried about growing military spending by Beijing and have warned that they might be compelled to review their own security posture if there is continued lack of transparency in this issue.
Despite occasional rifts with the US, China is no mood to fight and risk global economic collapse. The cost of such a conflict could be too heavy for the Chinese to sustain. Even if China overwhelms Taiwan with military might, it would be a pyrrhic victory, for much of the prosperous country’s spoils would be lost. Beijing, instead, wants to incorporate Taiwan peacefully in the same manner as Hong Kong and Macau. It is willing to concede total control of Taiwan, parceling out internal self rule in exchange for sovereignty. China appears to be following a course as prescribed by Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese warrior-philosopher:
“The one who figures on victory at headquarters before even doing battle is the one who has the most strategic factors on his side.”
prittwitz@hotmail.com
August 21, 2007
Edited: September 13, 2007
THE END
Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.
FLASHPOINT
The United States, the world’s sole superpower and China, the economic giant and the emerging superpower, are natural adversaries. But the two countries have fought only once in a major conflict in recent history – The Korean War (1950-1953) – which resulted in a stalemate and a divided Korean peninsula. As China expands its economic power, its military too is being fed with increased budgetary allocations in a bid to modernize its armed forces. The US, on the other hand, has stretched its military forces wide across the globe, thanks to its global commitments. Washington is engaged fruitlessly in Iraq since 2003. Also, its efforts to tame opponents in Afghanistan since 2001 are also yet to succeed.
In East Asia, China has the most powerful military potential in terms of its massive population, geography, industrial capacity and sheer numbers of its armed forces personnel, which currently has 2.3 million active troops. Japan, the world’s number two economy and Washington’s chief ally in the region, although bound by a mutual security pact with the US since 1945, appears to be charting a fresh course for its foreign policy. The Japanese want to establish their own sphere of influence as evident of their wooing of other emerging powers like India. However, Japan is too weak to counter China alone. It would need US military assistance in any eventual showdown with China. Japan’s recent overtures toward India can be understood as its aim to build new alliances and reduce dependence on the US.
China is rapidly building up its military muscle. It is producing advanced combat aircraft, both of indigenous and foreign design. It also wants to build an indigenously designed aircraft carrier, a major naval force multiplier platform. China’s new aircraft carrier and its follow-ups shall boost its naval power once only equaled in the region by Imperial Japanese Navy of World War II era.
China’s traditional headache, Taiwan, although impressively armed with US weapons, is too weak to stand up to China’s military might. China has assembled a vast array of ballistic missiles ranged against Taiwan, which has the potential to paralyze Taiwan’s nerve centers in one lethal volley at short notice. The US supplied Patriot air defense batteries in Taiwanese service would be incapable of intercepting all but a few incoming Chinese warheads.
But it is not easy for China to seize Taiwan without facing massive resistance. The US, Taiwan’s traditional security gurantor, can block Chinese attempt to storm the breakaway island state. The US Pacific Fleet’s combat power is too awesome to allow Chinese ships to cross the Taiwan Straits from the mainland with ease. China also lacks a large airlift capability to mount a massive airborne operation against Taiwan. Even if China later acquires this capability, Taiwanese air force equipped with modern US and French made fighter jets, backed by US carrier based fighters, have the power to negate any such Chinese attempt to intrude Taiwanese airspace. Chinese generals, therefore, cannot hope to replicate Nazi Germany’s successful takeover of Crete in the Mediterranean at the heights of World War II (1941).
But the trend is moving toward China’s favor as it modernizes its armed forces by pouring more money from its economic success. China is rapidly inducting Russian made Su-27 ‘Flanker’, a fourth generation advanced fighter aircraft designed to best US F-15s, into its service. It is manufacturing these long endurance aircraft equipped with advanced avionics and deadly air-to-air missiles with license from cash hungry Russia. Russia is more than willing to sell advanced weaponry to China. Russia has also drastically boosted China’s ground based air defenses by supplying S300 air defense missiles systems, which also have ballistic missile defense capability.
In terms of quality military manpower, the US and Taiwan have the edge for now. For example, the US and Taiwanese pilots are better trained with more flying hours per year of training than their Chinese counterparts. But this trend is shifting as China’s new material prosperity allows it to pour more money into military training, maneuvers and more frequent rehearsals.
China and Russia recently conducted joint exercises in Chinese territory. Both Russia and China are also busy forming a counter alliance to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The new axis, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which pairs Russia and China along with some other Central Asian states, is rapidly seeking to recruit some other remaining states into its camp, instead of them joining NATO. It is to be seen if Moscow and China’s romance would also extend to the Far East.
Keeping in mind China’s growing airpower, the US deployed advanced, radar evading F-22 Raptor interceptors in Okinawa, Japan early this year. The F-22 has just entered US Air Force service and it is the US military’s top-of-the-line silver bullet fighter aircraft. However, there are only few of them around as they are extremely expensive, only US seems to be able to afford them. Analysts said the US wants to sell these advanced warplanes to Japan. Japan’s air force currently has US supplied F-15s as its frontline fighter aircraft, which can be matched or outclassed by China’s Su-27s.
The US can also count on the powerful Japanese navy in joint maneuvers against China in any regional conflict. However, as mentioned earlier, Japan’s hawkish government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Abe has resigned since) appeared to favor an independent foreign policy in recent times. It might indicate that Japan might choose not to intervene in any US-China conflict, triggered most likely by any flare-up in the Taiwan Straits. The current Japanese constitution also forbids military expeditions beyond Japanese home waters.
The most ghastly scenario would be if any armed conflict between the two giants, the US and China, extends to the Chinese mainland. The US and its ally Taiwan (provided Taiwan agrees to fight inside Chinese mainland) would fare to be caught in a protracted and costly war a.k.a. Iraq, which might eventually outlast US determination to fight. The Chinese mainland is favorable to Chinese government forces, where skillful propaganda by Beijing can portray the US as a foreign occupying power rather than any liberator of the Chinese people. The lessons of the Korean War should be too fresh in the minds of American civilian and military leaders if they choose to engage the Chinese military in their own homeland. The modern Taiwan also lacks the appeal to arouse public opinion in the mainland as it is rapidly moving toward formal independence, a break from its past Kuomintang ethos as a pan-Chinese political entity.
Despite indications that hint adversarial relationship, the US and China are firmly interlinked by trade and economic ties. Besides being the major trade partner of the US, China has bought US debt which allows financing of Washington’s war in Iraq and Afghanistan. China’s humungous foreign currency reserves which totaled some $1.33 trillion in June 2007, allows it to boost its military spending, which officially stood at $36.6 billion in 2006. The US and other observers disagree and say Beijing spends much more, perhaps two or three times more than the announced figure. The Americans and the Japanese are simply worried about growing military spending by Beijing and have warned that they might be compelled to review their own security posture if there is continued lack of transparency in this issue.
Despite occasional rifts with the US, China is no mood to fight and risk global economic collapse. The cost of such a conflict could be too heavy for the Chinese to sustain. Even if China overwhelms Taiwan with military might, it would be a pyrrhic victory, for much of the prosperous country’s spoils would be lost. Beijing, instead, wants to incorporate Taiwan peacefully in the same manner as Hong Kong and Macau. It is willing to concede total control of Taiwan, parceling out internal self rule in exchange for sovereignty. China appears to be following a course as prescribed by Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese warrior-philosopher:
“The one who figures on victory at headquarters before even doing battle is the one who has the most strategic factors on his side.”
prittwitz@hotmail.com
August 21, 2007
Edited: September 13, 2007
THE END
Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.
Beefing up against Iran
The Bush administration has just made the decision to provide $20 billion worth of arms aid to Saudi Arabia and other neighboring Gulf states in a bid to strengthen their defenses against Iran. Iran, on the other hand, is adamant to continue its coveted nuclear program. The defiant Islamic republic is also spending more money to locally produce a vast array of armaments. Local production is necessitated by threat of US led sanctions. The Bush administration wants to rein in Iran's growing military power and its ambition to become a strong regional player. Washington is also concerned over Iran's influence among wartorn Iraq's Shias, with whom Iran shares cultural and religious ties.
The US and Iran are locked into a mini-Cold War. Both countries are trying to woo other regional states into their respective camps. Iran has great influence over Lebanon's powerful Shia group, the Hezbollah. Hezbollah is vociferously anti-Israel, having fought a bitter summer war with the Jewish state in 2006. It still is engaged in a deadly cat-and-mouse game with Israel on the latter's northern border with Lebanon – lobbing rockets at outlying civilian settlements there. The 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war showed that Israel's vaunted military power could not break the back of Hezbollah, which conducts lightning artillery and guerilla raids, pinpricking Israel. Iran has supplied anti-tank missiles, artillery rockets and manportable surface-to-air missiles to its pet client Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah is not directly targeting US interests, it remains on America's watch list of active terrorist groups.
Washington's principal ally among the Arab states, oil rich Saudi Arabia, is the world's leading producer and exporter of the "black gold". Ruled by the House of Sauds, a royal family, since its founding in 1911, the Saudi kingdom has been a key US client state since the end of World War II. The US established Arab American Oil Company (Aramco) in the 1930s to exploit the country's vast oil reserves. Aramco is now wholely Saudi owned. To beef up its airpower, the US supplied F-15 fighter aircraft and AWACS airborne command and control platform to the Saudis in the 1980s, despite vehement opposition from Israel, which feared growing Arab menace. Washington ostensibly wanted to secure Saudi airspace from spillover effects of the Iran-Iraq war, which raged from 1980-1988.
Iran with a population of over 65 million has a much greater military potential than Saudi Arabia or even if all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states combined against it. Moreover, Iran is trying hard to be self-sufficient in production of weapon systems. It has also purchased MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Kilo class submarines, and T-72 tanks from Russia to boost its military power. It is thought to be co-producing many of these weapon systems under license. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has no industrial capacity to produce major weapon platforms. It is solely dependent on imports from the US and the UK. Saudi air force has recently ordered Eurofighter Typhoon, a European designed fifth generation combat aircraft, to replace its ageing fleet of Tornado fighters and bombers. Saudi Tornados were no match for Iran's MiG-29s, according to assessments made as early as in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. In terms of geography, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are evenly matched. Their large land area allows dispersion of military and economic infrastructure, prime targets in a major armed conflict. Iran's ports are located only in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea while the Saudis can depend upon their Red Sea ports for resupply if any major war blocks access to the busy lanes of the Persian Gulf.
Saudi military is trained by US advisors and is equipped with latest Western weapons. Although Iranians have poorer quality weapons, they enjoy overwhelming numerical superiority against all the Gulf states combined. Iran has the ability to invade Saudi Arabia with 'human wave' tactics, employed albeit unsuccessfully against Iraq in the 1980s. The Saudis would need massive firepower to stem Iranian infantry onslaught. Iran's huge population allows it to recruit more manpower as it sustains heavy casualties, provided the mullahs and ayatollahs boost Iranian morale with intense religious fervor.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states would require overt US military aid to confront Iran. Iran is also busy building its ballistic missile force, a surest means to deliver nuclear warheads. Only Saudi Arabia is thought to possess Chinese supplied intermediate range ballistic missiles to reply in kind to any Iranian first strike. However, the reliability of the Chinese made missiles is an issue compared to other Western weapons in the Saudi arsenal. US naval units including aircraft carrier battle groups routinely patrol the Straits of Hormuz, the choke point leading to the Persian Gulf. Some 90 percent of world's oil supply passes through this route. Any major war or intensive mining of these waters could disrupt the global economy, especially that of Europe and Japan.
In addition to the threat posed by Iran, Saudi Arabia has other enemies linked to its homegrown opposition. The Al Qaida is trying to topple the ruling House of Saud family from power, seeking to establish a Sunni Islamic state in the country which houses Islam's two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. This is thought to be a major objective of the transnational terror network led by the mysterious Osama bin Laden, a Saudi national. Although the Saudis, backed by American intelligence, have had recent spate of successes against homegrown Al Qaida affiliates, its threat cannot be discounted easily.
The greatest possible threat comes from a scenario when Al Qaida and Iran, somehow, patch up their differences and establish a working relationship. Both parties share common interest to mitigate US influence in the region. Therefore an alliance between these two parties is probable despite the Sunni-Shia schism apparently observed in Iraq. US commanders in Afghanistan have already pointed their fingers at Iran of aiding the Taliban, which is fighting to oust the Americans and their other foreign allies.
Iran's release of captured UK sailors some months back was a gesture of goodwill backed by force. Although Iranian leaders cannot pursue a hostile course against the West, they made a point by asserting their sovereignty over disputed waters of the Persian Gulf. But Iran cannot risk a major war. Its perceived quest for nuclear weapons can be seen as its interest to maintain regional hegemony and to counter US strategic interests.
Israel's traditional rival, Syria, can also count on Iran's support. The two nations are close allies since Iran-Iraq war and have shared interests in both Iraq and Lebanon. Syria, lacking extensive oil wealth, is much weaker than Iran. Syria lost its traditional backing after the breakup of the former Soviet Union. Its military aid pipeline was cut drastically and it had to pay cash to Moscow to order new weapons. Israel, on the other hand, enjoys continued military aid from Washington. The new scenario has increased Syria's dependence on Iran.
Once Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it will be much difficult for Washington to put pressure on it. Any US led military operations against Iran would backfire as Europe would be held hostage to Iran's nuclear strike. Iran may eventually acquire intercontinental ballistic missile capability, allowing it to directly threaten the continental United States. Such a scenario has alarmed Washington, which has pushed plans to deploy radars and anti-ballistic missile sites in Eastern Europe. But, Russia, Iran's patron is not happy over this. The Russians say the US plan is aimed against it, which Washington denies. Ultimately, Iran is gaining from this dispute. Iran also wants to acquire additional weaponry from Russia, which it can easily pay with its fat oil revenue. Iran knows it cannot prevail against the US in a frontal attack. But it acutely perceives US vulnerabilities. For example, the impact of US casualties on American public opinion is not lost in Iranian minds. Thus, in any major showdown with the US, Iran would seek to cause maximum US casualties. If a US carrier or another type of capital ship is hit hard or at best sunk, it would immediately force a humiliating withdrawal of the Americans. Such would be a great victory for Iranians as they perceive it.
However, Iran's growing young population is not as anti-US as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad would like to see. The theocratic political leadership realizes this. The US, too, wants moderates like past Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to come back and take the yoke of Iranian leadership. Also, the pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani has been elected to the post of chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a most crucial Iranian political institution responsible among other things for dismissing and electing the Supreme Leader, the highest ranking political and religious authority of the Islamic state. The new development brings a ray of hope in possible warming up of ties with the West.
Real détente with the Iranians is, however, only possible through direct dialogue and success in persuading them to give up their nuclear weapons program in exchange of firm security guarantee.
THE END
Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.
prittwitz@hotmail.com
Pritz Inc. (2007)
The US and Iran are locked into a mini-Cold War. Both countries are trying to woo other regional states into their respective camps. Iran has great influence over Lebanon's powerful Shia group, the Hezbollah. Hezbollah is vociferously anti-Israel, having fought a bitter summer war with the Jewish state in 2006. It still is engaged in a deadly cat-and-mouse game with Israel on the latter's northern border with Lebanon – lobbing rockets at outlying civilian settlements there. The 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war showed that Israel's vaunted military power could not break the back of Hezbollah, which conducts lightning artillery and guerilla raids, pinpricking Israel. Iran has supplied anti-tank missiles, artillery rockets and manportable surface-to-air missiles to its pet client Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah is not directly targeting US interests, it remains on America's watch list of active terrorist groups.
Washington's principal ally among the Arab states, oil rich Saudi Arabia, is the world's leading producer and exporter of the "black gold". Ruled by the House of Sauds, a royal family, since its founding in 1911, the Saudi kingdom has been a key US client state since the end of World War II. The US established Arab American Oil Company (Aramco) in the 1930s to exploit the country's vast oil reserves. Aramco is now wholely Saudi owned. To beef up its airpower, the US supplied F-15 fighter aircraft and AWACS airborne command and control platform to the Saudis in the 1980s, despite vehement opposition from Israel, which feared growing Arab menace. Washington ostensibly wanted to secure Saudi airspace from spillover effects of the Iran-Iraq war, which raged from 1980-1988.
Iran with a population of over 65 million has a much greater military potential than Saudi Arabia or even if all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states combined against it. Moreover, Iran is trying hard to be self-sufficient in production of weapon systems. It has also purchased MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Kilo class submarines, and T-72 tanks from Russia to boost its military power. It is thought to be co-producing many of these weapon systems under license. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has no industrial capacity to produce major weapon platforms. It is solely dependent on imports from the US and the UK. Saudi air force has recently ordered Eurofighter Typhoon, a European designed fifth generation combat aircraft, to replace its ageing fleet of Tornado fighters and bombers. Saudi Tornados were no match for Iran's MiG-29s, according to assessments made as early as in the 1991 Persian Gulf War. In terms of geography, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are evenly matched. Their large land area allows dispersion of military and economic infrastructure, prime targets in a major armed conflict. Iran's ports are located only in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea while the Saudis can depend upon their Red Sea ports for resupply if any major war blocks access to the busy lanes of the Persian Gulf.
Saudi military is trained by US advisors and is equipped with latest Western weapons. Although Iranians have poorer quality weapons, they enjoy overwhelming numerical superiority against all the Gulf states combined. Iran has the ability to invade Saudi Arabia with 'human wave' tactics, employed albeit unsuccessfully against Iraq in the 1980s. The Saudis would need massive firepower to stem Iranian infantry onslaught. Iran's huge population allows it to recruit more manpower as it sustains heavy casualties, provided the mullahs and ayatollahs boost Iranian morale with intense religious fervor.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states would require overt US military aid to confront Iran. Iran is also busy building its ballistic missile force, a surest means to deliver nuclear warheads. Only Saudi Arabia is thought to possess Chinese supplied intermediate range ballistic missiles to reply in kind to any Iranian first strike. However, the reliability of the Chinese made missiles is an issue compared to other Western weapons in the Saudi arsenal. US naval units including aircraft carrier battle groups routinely patrol the Straits of Hormuz, the choke point leading to the Persian Gulf. Some 90 percent of world's oil supply passes through this route. Any major war or intensive mining of these waters could disrupt the global economy, especially that of Europe and Japan.
In addition to the threat posed by Iran, Saudi Arabia has other enemies linked to its homegrown opposition. The Al Qaida is trying to topple the ruling House of Saud family from power, seeking to establish a Sunni Islamic state in the country which houses Islam's two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. This is thought to be a major objective of the transnational terror network led by the mysterious Osama bin Laden, a Saudi national. Although the Saudis, backed by American intelligence, have had recent spate of successes against homegrown Al Qaida affiliates, its threat cannot be discounted easily.
The greatest possible threat comes from a scenario when Al Qaida and Iran, somehow, patch up their differences and establish a working relationship. Both parties share common interest to mitigate US influence in the region. Therefore an alliance between these two parties is probable despite the Sunni-Shia schism apparently observed in Iraq. US commanders in Afghanistan have already pointed their fingers at Iran of aiding the Taliban, which is fighting to oust the Americans and their other foreign allies.
Iran's release of captured UK sailors some months back was a gesture of goodwill backed by force. Although Iranian leaders cannot pursue a hostile course against the West, they made a point by asserting their sovereignty over disputed waters of the Persian Gulf. But Iran cannot risk a major war. Its perceived quest for nuclear weapons can be seen as its interest to maintain regional hegemony and to counter US strategic interests.
Israel's traditional rival, Syria, can also count on Iran's support. The two nations are close allies since Iran-Iraq war and have shared interests in both Iraq and Lebanon. Syria, lacking extensive oil wealth, is much weaker than Iran. Syria lost its traditional backing after the breakup of the former Soviet Union. Its military aid pipeline was cut drastically and it had to pay cash to Moscow to order new weapons. Israel, on the other hand, enjoys continued military aid from Washington. The new scenario has increased Syria's dependence on Iran.
Once Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it will be much difficult for Washington to put pressure on it. Any US led military operations against Iran would backfire as Europe would be held hostage to Iran's nuclear strike. Iran may eventually acquire intercontinental ballistic missile capability, allowing it to directly threaten the continental United States. Such a scenario has alarmed Washington, which has pushed plans to deploy radars and anti-ballistic missile sites in Eastern Europe. But, Russia, Iran's patron is not happy over this. The Russians say the US plan is aimed against it, which Washington denies. Ultimately, Iran is gaining from this dispute. Iran also wants to acquire additional weaponry from Russia, which it can easily pay with its fat oil revenue. Iran knows it cannot prevail against the US in a frontal attack. But it acutely perceives US vulnerabilities. For example, the impact of US casualties on American public opinion is not lost in Iranian minds. Thus, in any major showdown with the US, Iran would seek to cause maximum US casualties. If a US carrier or another type of capital ship is hit hard or at best sunk, it would immediately force a humiliating withdrawal of the Americans. Such would be a great victory for Iranians as they perceive it.
However, Iran's growing young population is not as anti-US as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad would like to see. The theocratic political leadership realizes this. The US, too, wants moderates like past Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to come back and take the yoke of Iranian leadership. Also, the pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani has been elected to the post of chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a most crucial Iranian political institution responsible among other things for dismissing and electing the Supreme Leader, the highest ranking political and religious authority of the Islamic state. The new development brings a ray of hope in possible warming up of ties with the West.
Real détente with the Iranians is, however, only possible through direct dialogue and success in persuading them to give up their nuclear weapons program in exchange of firm security guarantee.
THE END
Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.
prittwitz@hotmail.com
Pritz Inc. (2007)
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Universal Studios - Fear Station Zebra
The Simpson's ride was fantastic. At first it was very scary. Then I imagined myself as a Typhoon pilot (remembering my granddad BK Singh). The motion of the display was a breathtaking experience.
The Mummy show was too much. I just had to shut my eyes. The fear (factor) built up rapidly. I prayed.
The whole place is... I can't describe it in one entry.
The Mummy show was too much. I just had to shut my eyes. The fear (factor) built up rapidly. I prayed.
The whole place is... I can't describe it in one entry.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Batswing
An action packed tribute to Heath Ledger. His phenomenal portrayal of anarchist Joker deserves much acclaim. Direction is superb. Music and cathartic effects combined with thrilling music produces pure magic. Christain Bale's Bruce Wayne is rather less appealing than George Clooney and Michael Keyton. But the technology is awesome. Special effects is just phenomenal. Batman's ultramodern gear compensates for Bale's rather less than powerful Wayne personality.
Joker's appearance at unlikely places, his attempted assasination of Lt. James Gordon (Gary Oldman) are some of the memorable scenes. Batman's supposed fall from grace and his pursuit by public and the media reflects the utopianist ideals of American society.
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Rachel Dawes)is simply elegant. I could not understand Harvey Dent's (Aaron Eckhart) metamorphosis into a villain. How could Joker influence him to change his ideals?
Joker's appearance at unlikely places, his attempted assasination of Lt. James Gordon (Gary Oldman) are some of the memorable scenes. Batman's supposed fall from grace and his pursuit by public and the media reflects the utopianist ideals of American society.
Maggie Gyllenhaal (Rachel Dawes)is simply elegant. I could not understand Harvey Dent's (Aaron Eckhart) metamorphosis into a villain. How could Joker influence him to change his ideals?
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Viva Gloria Estefan
Gloria Estefan is an epic artist. She represents the voice of freedom for all of us living in the free world. Her songs "Oye mi canto" and "open up your eyes, here I am standing by" are captivating. I love her for what she represents. I proudly want to invite her to inspire me to lead UDPN. She is a true diva, a motherly figure for me. Her anti-communist ideology also appeals to me. And, above all, she is a very beautiful woman.
Source: wikipedia.org
Source: wikipedia.org
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Commission for the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights
July 12, 2008
IPR is an issue of concern to everyone. In the modern world, piracy and intellectual property rights dispute is common. Nepal can be the right place to start the anti-piracy effort in the whole of Asia. Piracy affects artistes, writers, singer songwriters across the world. In order to resolve IPR disputes and claim proper compensation the Royal Nepali government should take immediate steps to establish a powerful commission for the protection of intellectual property rights. From its unique location in Nepal, the commission can direct prosecutors to even our neighboring countries India and China, where piracy is rife. If Nepalis learn to uphold IPR laws and international understanding, all the artistes and writers can benefit in terms of both recognition of their work and proper monetary compensation.
Pritam S Rana,
Partner,
Pritz Wissenschaft Inc.
IPR is an issue of concern to everyone. In the modern world, piracy and intellectual property rights dispute is common. Nepal can be the right place to start the anti-piracy effort in the whole of Asia. Piracy affects artistes, writers, singer songwriters across the world. In order to resolve IPR disputes and claim proper compensation the Royal Nepali government should take immediate steps to establish a powerful commission for the protection of intellectual property rights. From its unique location in Nepal, the commission can direct prosecutors to even our neighboring countries India and China, where piracy is rife. If Nepalis learn to uphold IPR laws and international understanding, all the artistes and writers can benefit in terms of both recognition of their work and proper monetary compensation.
Pritam S Rana,
Partner,
Pritz Wissenschaft Inc.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Hannah's prayer
'God - may there be no end
To sea, to sand
Water's splash
Lightning's flash
The prayer of man.'
- Hannah Senesh (1921-1944)
Copyright: 2004, Phil Blazer and Shelley Portnoy, Blazer Communications.
Pritam's thoughts on Hannah
The feeling expressed have magical connotations to me. It touches my heart even though written at a different time. Hannah was a very brave woman, exceptional for her young age. She volunteered for the most dangerous job of her time. I respect her truly. Hail Hannah!
To sea, to sand
Water's splash
Lightning's flash
The prayer of man.'
- Hannah Senesh (1921-1944)
Copyright: 2004, Phil Blazer and Shelley Portnoy, Blazer Communications.
Pritam's thoughts on Hannah
The feeling expressed have magical connotations to me. It touches my heart even though written at a different time. Hannah was a very brave woman, exceptional for her young age. She volunteered for the most dangerous job of her time. I respect her truly. Hail Hannah!
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Jabotinsky's famous quote
"The basis of the Betarian viewpoint consists of one idea: the Jewish state. In this simple idea however, lies a deep meaning indeed. What do the nations of the world symbolize? They symbolize that every nation must contribute its own share to the common culture of mankind, a share which is distinguished by its own specific spirit. the contribution should not and cannot consist merely of the ideas and good advice to other nations; it must serve as a living example of ideas and ideals, tangibly realized, expressed not only in books but in the collective life of the people as well. For this purpose, every nation must possess its own 'laboratory', a country where in the nation alone is master and can freely suit the common life in accordance with its own conception of good and evil. A people's own state is such a laboratory."
-Ze'ev Jabotinsky
Copyright: Pioneers of Israel, Phil Blazer and Shelley Portnoy, Blazer Communications, 2004.
-Ze'ev Jabotinsky
Copyright: Pioneers of Israel, Phil Blazer and Shelley Portnoy, Blazer Communications, 2004.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Nepal's woes
The current veering of Nepal to far left is dangerous development. The Maoist majority in constituent assembly is unfortunate. The aim of the Maoist armed group is to set up a communist republic. This goal will essentiailly destroy Nepal's identity. The ouster of Hindu king is another example of movement toward secularism. Secularism does not guarantee freedom or equality for the minority faiths. It might end up with more competition and subsequent disharmony among various faiths. Sectarian riots like of India can be common now. Separatism and irredentism is on the rise. These negative anti-national activities could ultimately lead to complete breakdown of central authority.
Maoist leaders like Prachanda, Baburam and Badal must be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity. They began the brutal war against the Nepali people. Justice must be served to the victims of Maoists.
Maoist leaders like Prachanda, Baburam and Badal must be tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity. They began the brutal war against the Nepali people. Justice must be served to the victims of Maoists.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
End of Prachanda
Prachanda who started terrorism in nepal is certain to die like FARC leader. His hand was displayed by his former comerades. Ha Ha, said Jose Manuel Santos, defense minister of Colombia.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Deport Carlos to US
Carlos the Jackal, whose persona is being worn by that rascal "Badal" the so called terrorist leader in Nepal should be brought before the International criminal Court in Hague. Responsibe for the damage of innfrsatructure worth billions of rupees in Nepal, the maoist group should pay for all the damages. Otherwise, Nuernberg style trial should be brought forward. Nepal is in danger of falling in the same trap of Rwanda 1994 and other failed states. President Bush said, "It is easy to tear the country part than build it....". The same principle should be upheld in Nepal. United Nations is a mere spectator. It can't even destroy the arms of the violent rebels who want to become FARC (Fuerzas Areas of Revolutionarias des Colombia) and FMLN of El Salvador. These people must be stopped from contesting in polls in Nepal. I want to petition to the whole world citizens that these extremists be not allowed to engage in politics. The same way as the West German constitution forbids Nazis and communists from engaing in politics.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Reinstate Red Corner against Maoists
Prachanda, Baburam Bhattarai and his coterie belong to kal kothari. These people have blood on their hands. Thus they cannot engage in politics in Nepal. Castigate these criminals. The government of Nepal should re-issue red corner notice against all the cadres and leaders. Murder cannot be condoned before a life sentence. Prachanda, who wants to be Saddam Hussein of Nepal, may see the same fate as Saddam. By destroying the infrstructure of Nepal, the Maoists have caused damage worth billions of rupees. These monies have to be accounted for at the soon to be created General Accounting Office.
Communists of Nepal have to give up their violent ideology and become like the Social Democrats of Germany. If they retain their communist roots, they will be stooges of Russian and Chinese communists. If anybody like CP Mainali have blood on their hands, they belong in prison and penetentairies. Matthew Kahane is pandering to Maoists. He does not let Tibetans to protest in front of his office. And, he thinks he can manage Nepal. The Human Rights Commission is also a tool of the Maoists to save their murderers. The International Criminal Court in Geneva has expressly failed to push His Majesty's Government to take stern action.
Prachanda and Maoists are forcing Nepali patriots to organize resistance in the manner of United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. I think Jose Manuel Santos, Colombia's defense minister has much to advise Nepali leaders to handle the insurgency.
Communists of Nepal have to give up their violent ideology and become like the Social Democrats of Germany. If they retain their communist roots, they will be stooges of Russian and Chinese communists. If anybody like CP Mainali have blood on their hands, they belong in prison and penetentairies. Matthew Kahane is pandering to Maoists. He does not let Tibetans to protest in front of his office. And, he thinks he can manage Nepal. The Human Rights Commission is also a tool of the Maoists to save their murderers. The International Criminal Court in Geneva has expressly failed to push His Majesty's Government to take stern action.
Prachanda and Maoists are forcing Nepali patriots to organize resistance in the manner of United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. I think Jose Manuel Santos, Colombia's defense minister has much to advise Nepali leaders to handle the insurgency.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
Why Nepal needs monarchy
Nepal's unrelentless propulsion toward republic could create another disaster ala Sikkim and Tibet. Look at Poland's history. It was divided between Hitler and Stalin and the Poles bombed and driven out. Is this the fate Nepalis deserve? Prachanda the would be Saddam Hussein of Nepal ought to understand this.
When Nepal's institution of monarchy is dissolved, Nepal would be no more. The massive forces of globalization coupled with new trends has the potential to wipe out monarchy. When Kenichi Ohashi, world bank rep speaks of feudalism, he better be careful. He is one of the special interest group supporting Maoist Nepal. Dictatorship of the proletariat like the 1917 revolution means end of national entity for Nepal.
The only Hindu Kingdom which displayed tolerance toward all the religions has now to be transformed into a secular state like India. Ha! Ha! And, nagar and gaun panchayats have been transformed into palikas. What a joke? His Majesty King Gyanendra is still the avatar of Lord Vishnu coz he takes care of his people here and abroad. And Prachanda a tin pot non-official wants to be the president of Nepal. C'mon this must be some sort of a crude joke. A guy who ought to face Nuremberg tribunal will become Nepal's leader. Ha!
The International Criminal Court in Genev is a joke. So many white men in Nepal pandering to Maoist criminals. When Baburam Bhattarai started the people's war in Nepal, he oght to have faced the court. Such men are allowed to conduct politics in Nepal, what as shame? His supposedly highly Sanskritized Nepali language articles following the bum Karl Marx, Lenin and Engels ought to be strongly countered.
Their followers want to uproot thhe monarchy in Thailand? What a pity. Siam was one of the nicest places on earth. And they want to incarcerate King Bhumibol. Wow, journalists of Nepal and lawyers. You have beaten the whole world. These movements like the Socialist International should not be allowed to conduct programs in Nepal.
Ant there are special interest groups like the SASANET who want to disarm Nepal's army. Pls go back home! So it will become easier for Chinese army units to enter Nepal's border and kidnap all the Mongolian people. (Remember Dhaibung 1793(BS)
When Nepal's institution of monarchy is dissolved, Nepal would be no more. The massive forces of globalization coupled with new trends has the potential to wipe out monarchy. When Kenichi Ohashi, world bank rep speaks of feudalism, he better be careful. He is one of the special interest group supporting Maoist Nepal. Dictatorship of the proletariat like the 1917 revolution means end of national entity for Nepal.
The only Hindu Kingdom which displayed tolerance toward all the religions has now to be transformed into a secular state like India. Ha! Ha! And, nagar and gaun panchayats have been transformed into palikas. What a joke? His Majesty King Gyanendra is still the avatar of Lord Vishnu coz he takes care of his people here and abroad. And Prachanda a tin pot non-official wants to be the president of Nepal. C'mon this must be some sort of a crude joke. A guy who ought to face Nuremberg tribunal will become Nepal's leader. Ha!
The International Criminal Court in Genev is a joke. So many white men in Nepal pandering to Maoist criminals. When Baburam Bhattarai started the people's war in Nepal, he oght to have faced the court. Such men are allowed to conduct politics in Nepal, what as shame? His supposedly highly Sanskritized Nepali language articles following the bum Karl Marx, Lenin and Engels ought to be strongly countered.
Their followers want to uproot thhe monarchy in Thailand? What a pity. Siam was one of the nicest places on earth. And they want to incarcerate King Bhumibol. Wow, journalists of Nepal and lawyers. You have beaten the whole world. These movements like the Socialist International should not be allowed to conduct programs in Nepal.
Ant there are special interest groups like the SASANET who want to disarm Nepal's army. Pls go back home! So it will become easier for Chinese army units to enter Nepal's border and kidnap all the Mongolian people. (Remember Dhaibung 1793(BS)
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Chronicle on new Nepal
Nepal appears to be in doldrums. Now the Maoists seem to rule Nepal, having tied down the hands of the all powerful prime minister and everyone else in the government. What kind of system is this? People are led to believe that the problems are due to the so-called transitional period. Don’t the people in Nepal deserve better? There’s jacked up food prices, petroleum supply is unavailable on demand, there is load shedding and what not. Wake up Nepali leaders! Give the nation’s helm to the youth and let them lead please. March to the tune of globalization and exactly there lies Nepal’s road to prosperity. Out with you old people of politics, you’ve completely kowtowed to the Maoists’ illegitimate and ungainly demands. Please redeem your souls before Nepal is totally "red". Red with blood of its own hardworking and would be enterprising citizens. Isn’t it a pity that every youth wants to go abroad? Even lesser educated ones prefer Gulf region and get a break. If there had been any meaningful economic growth and business promotion braced by solid foreign investment, Nepal would have joined the ranks of Shining India and Growing China. Please do something to really move Nepal up the ladder of the underdeveloped club. No more behind Somalia, the image just doesn’t suit for our once glorious land of the brave Gurkhas and hardy Sherpas. Wake up people! Its 2007 not 1007 AD!!
Friday, March 30, 2007
Prachanda's Swiss watches
To the surprise of many proletariats, Maoist chairman Prachanda is said to be sporting expensive Swiss made Rolex and Rado watches. This has been noticed by eagle-eyed reporters at the frequent press meets organized by the rebel supremo. While there was much clamor over the king's lavish taste for tropical fruits from Thailand and misti curd from Bangladesh, much ink has not been spared to describe the exquisite tastes of the so-called leaders of the proletariats, the Maoists. Such lavish lifestyle is in stark contrast to the working class image, which the Maoists would like to project themselves. Just imagine life in one of the cantonments where lowly Maoist rank and file eat and sleep.
As this post is being written, Maoists are already designated to join the government (the executive branch). Some of the ministries are about to be handed over to the rebels. The announcement to be made in legislature on March 31, 2007 would mark the culmination of the ten year long armed struggle launched by the Maoists. This would be a landmark of their achievement after their entry into the interim legislature.
Maoists are yet to change their 'jungle' attitude and have failed to win the confidence of such segments like the businessmen and foreign powers. US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty is said to have cautioned PM and other some Seven Party Leaders to be careful in inducting Maoists into the Cabinet. Despite the suggestion, political scenario is such that Maoists would receive ministries whether anybody likes it or not. The Seven Party Alliance are compelled to share power with the Maoists as per their various agreements with the armed rebels. Analysts would be interested to monitor Maoist attitude after they become Nepal's rulers, albeit sharing power with other political forces.
As this post is being written, Maoists are already designated to join the government (the executive branch). Some of the ministries are about to be handed over to the rebels. The announcement to be made in legislature on March 31, 2007 would mark the culmination of the ten year long armed struggle launched by the Maoists. This would be a landmark of their achievement after their entry into the interim legislature.
Maoists are yet to change their 'jungle' attitude and have failed to win the confidence of such segments like the businessmen and foreign powers. US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty is said to have cautioned PM and other some Seven Party Leaders to be careful in inducting Maoists into the Cabinet. Despite the suggestion, political scenario is such that Maoists would receive ministries whether anybody likes it or not. The Seven Party Alliance are compelled to share power with the Maoists as per their various agreements with the armed rebels. Analysts would be interested to monitor Maoist attitude after they become Nepal's rulers, albeit sharing power with other political forces.
Friday, March 02, 2007
Imbroglio for Maoists
The armed group which calls itself the CPN-Maoist party is in the process of joining the executive branch of Nepal government. Maoist cadres already have 83 seats in the interim legislature, which was formed through nominations after the old parliament was dissolved. Despite the signing of the historic peace agreement with the Seven Party Alliance led government, the Maoists have simply not given up violence and joined the political process. The recent misbehavior by a Maoist legislator where he flaunted of possessing arms inside the parliament building and his use of abusive language demonstrates that Maoists are very much ‘jungle dwellers’.
More disturbing is the arms registration issue. While registering 30,000 armed cadres, Maoists only presented 3,000 arms. The mismatch is simply unbelievable. This points to the fact that Maoists may be hiding a greater portion of their arms for future confrontation or just armed takeover. Armed Maoists mounted in jeeps were seen in some districts. The arms carried by them were apparently ‘registered with the UN’ as claimed by the Maoists. The UN had said it wasn’t sure whether all arms were duly registered. This leaves plenty of doubt, thanks to Maoists aggressive posture.
Maoist chairman Prachanda recently said his cadres would not call any strikes and would also prevent others from organizing such stoppages. This would surely lead to further clashes with the cadres of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) and possibly the janajatis. The Maoists created the ethnic based movements to propel their own agenda. Now, they are facing the brunt of the problem.
More disturbing is the arms registration issue. While registering 30,000 armed cadres, Maoists only presented 3,000 arms. The mismatch is simply unbelievable. This points to the fact that Maoists may be hiding a greater portion of their arms for future confrontation or just armed takeover. Armed Maoists mounted in jeeps were seen in some districts. The arms carried by them were apparently ‘registered with the UN’ as claimed by the Maoists. The UN had said it wasn’t sure whether all arms were duly registered. This leaves plenty of doubt, thanks to Maoists aggressive posture.
Maoist chairman Prachanda recently said his cadres would not call any strikes and would also prevent others from organizing such stoppages. This would surely lead to further clashes with the cadres of Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (MPRF) and possibly the janajatis. The Maoists created the ethnic based movements to propel their own agenda. Now, they are facing the brunt of the problem.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
People's movement should yield positive results
The ongoing people's movement which began from April 6 should aim to introduce reforms in Nepali political system. Nepal should do away with feudalism and backwardness; it should move forward towards peace, development and prosperity. It is sickening to see that economic growth in Nepal is merely 2 percent according to ADB, while South Asian average growth stands at around 6-7 percent. This itself shows the impact of political upheaval and pandemic violence in Nepal.
Look at the example of Singapore. A port hamlet in 1940s have now transformed into Southeast Asia's economic powerhouse. We also need mission, vision when we think interms of developing this country. We cannot do this all by ourselves. Our diplomats abroad should convince friendly and prosperous countries to invest in what we have-- like water resources. Key to Nepal's development is foreign investment, whether you like it or not.
The country is in transitional phase. At one side ther is violent revolutionary movement which seeks to overthrow the present suystem with its own dicatorship. At the other side is the seven party alliance which is driving the present people's movement. We do need change. But what change?
One solution which I would like to propose is one which can bring the Maoists to the mainstream by meeting one of their key demands--constituent assembly. If the King and his government allow the election of constituent assembly, maoists can be asked to lay down their arms and participate in this process. But, here all sides need to compromise anfd agree to work this out. Its a great gamble for the king, but he has to agree as it would be a condition for Maoists to lay down their arms to a third party like the UN. The constituent assembly would draft a new constitution which should guarantee inclusive democracy. In this system, all peoples of Nepal would get equal opportunity. No one group or caste or family can rule over others. All leaders in the new system would be fully accountable to the people and nobody would be above law.
Let us just hope that we can find a peaceful resolution to all the crises affecting this country. Long live Nepal and its countrymen!
Look at the example of Singapore. A port hamlet in 1940s have now transformed into Southeast Asia's economic powerhouse. We also need mission, vision when we think interms of developing this country. We cannot do this all by ourselves. Our diplomats abroad should convince friendly and prosperous countries to invest in what we have-- like water resources. Key to Nepal's development is foreign investment, whether you like it or not.
The country is in transitional phase. At one side ther is violent revolutionary movement which seeks to overthrow the present suystem with its own dicatorship. At the other side is the seven party alliance which is driving the present people's movement. We do need change. But what change?
One solution which I would like to propose is one which can bring the Maoists to the mainstream by meeting one of their key demands--constituent assembly. If the King and his government allow the election of constituent assembly, maoists can be asked to lay down their arms and participate in this process. But, here all sides need to compromise anfd agree to work this out. Its a great gamble for the king, but he has to agree as it would be a condition for Maoists to lay down their arms to a third party like the UN. The constituent assembly would draft a new constitution which should guarantee inclusive democracy. In this system, all peoples of Nepal would get equal opportunity. No one group or caste or family can rule over others. All leaders in the new system would be fully accountable to the people and nobody would be above law.
Let us just hope that we can find a peaceful resolution to all the crises affecting this country. Long live Nepal and its countrymen!
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Ceasefire breakup, possible artillery acquisitions
The ceasefire is no more. The Maoists have broken the ceasefire on their own terms. They probably wish to target the government's municipal polls. The parties have said their 12 point understanding still sticks despite bombings which have followed the breakup of the ceasefire. Maoists have targeted flea market and public offices. They do not seem to have guts to attack the security forces. Their aim is to create panic among the public so as to create pressure upon the government to give in to their demands or at least appreciate their power.
Also on the news was the wrap up of military operation by government in Rolpa. Army units should keep up the pressure on Maoists in their strongholds. At least that's gonna keep many cadres busy on the defensive and on the run. The government should never hand over the initiative to the rebels. Limiting government action to reactive moves will leave the rebels with the upper hand.
A local weekly reported some time back that Maoists wanted to import artillery pieces to step up their war effort. Artillery is useful only agianst fixed positions. Positional battles for territory will involve artillery duels and bombardments to support infantry offensive. If in any case, the rebels do acquire artillery, the government should quickly acquire attack helicopters and fixed wing strike capability aircraft. These aircraft should be equipped with thermal sensors to detect artillery pieces under intensive camouflage. Artillery raids on built up area can cause horrendous civilian casualties in previously unseen proportions in Nepal.
Artillery was extensively used by such insurgent forces like the Viet Minh in the 1950s, LTTE in present Sri Lanka. If it can persuade India, Indian military assets should be tasked to destroy any heavy arms which find their way in the rebel arsenal. But it is always wise to rely on one's own defense forces to do clean up one's own backyard.
Also on the news was the wrap up of military operation by government in Rolpa. Army units should keep up the pressure on Maoists in their strongholds. At least that's gonna keep many cadres busy on the defensive and on the run. The government should never hand over the initiative to the rebels. Limiting government action to reactive moves will leave the rebels with the upper hand.
A local weekly reported some time back that Maoists wanted to import artillery pieces to step up their war effort. Artillery is useful only agianst fixed positions. Positional battles for territory will involve artillery duels and bombardments to support infantry offensive. If in any case, the rebels do acquire artillery, the government should quickly acquire attack helicopters and fixed wing strike capability aircraft. These aircraft should be equipped with thermal sensors to detect artillery pieces under intensive camouflage. Artillery raids on built up area can cause horrendous civilian casualties in previously unseen proportions in Nepal.
Artillery was extensively used by such insurgent forces like the Viet Minh in the 1950s, LTTE in present Sri Lanka. If it can persuade India, Indian military assets should be tasked to destroy any heavy arms which find their way in the rebel arsenal. But it is always wise to rely on one's own defense forces to do clean up one's own backyard.
Friday, July 22, 2005
Highway security
Ever since the Maoists bombed a passenger bus in Madi,Chitwan killing about thirty people, travel in the national highways has been a nightmare to many. The Maoists try to target security personnel who regularly use buses for transport. Now, the army has issued directive ordering soldiers to refrain from using buses while on duty. Despite this, security problem persists in the highways and many more people are likely to die in the future.
The Maoists use roadside bomb to target military and police vehicles. These explosives concocted with explosive materials imported from India are triggered by 'button pushers' who observe their quarry before pushing the button to detonate the bomb. It is extremey difficult to locate both the bomb and the 'button pushers'. It is said that these 'button pushers' position themselves close to a few hundred meters of the bomb at a vantage point to observe the target area.
There is no technology to detect bombs laden at roadside apart from crude metal detectors which a soldier in outlying areas is likely to get into his hand. These devices are nothing like ones used in Iraq by US troops who also are victims of suicide bombers. All soldiers in patrol must keep a keen eye for the 'button pushers' who are often cleverly camouflaged with the terrain. To locate these elusive foe, is one hell of a task for underequipped, unmotivated Royal Nepal Army men who are often poorly trained.
Anytime another bus might go off like an ignited matchbox, at the mercy of whim of some trigger-happy Maoist executive. With th ecoming of festival season, tens of thousands of Nepalis return to their home villages and towns. Public buses are the chief means of transport for these people. Although a truce can be expected during Dashain, small miscalculation by the rebels can trigger a human catastrophe. Travelling by buses is ticking time bomb. Anytime it can go off. Not only buses, private cars and SUVs are also potential targets. Incidents of Maoists stopping and torching vehicles, although passengers have been spared, is quite common. A non-insured vehicle can be a source of terrible loss to its owner.
Army has recently purchased WZ-523 APCs from China. these can be used for highway security. however, the army needs more than the six purchased to patrol the major highways.
The Maoists use roadside bomb to target military and police vehicles. These explosives concocted with explosive materials imported from India are triggered by 'button pushers' who observe their quarry before pushing the button to detonate the bomb. It is extremey difficult to locate both the bomb and the 'button pushers'. It is said that these 'button pushers' position themselves close to a few hundred meters of the bomb at a vantage point to observe the target area.
There is no technology to detect bombs laden at roadside apart from crude metal detectors which a soldier in outlying areas is likely to get into his hand. These devices are nothing like ones used in Iraq by US troops who also are victims of suicide bombers. All soldiers in patrol must keep a keen eye for the 'button pushers' who are often cleverly camouflaged with the terrain. To locate these elusive foe, is one hell of a task for underequipped, unmotivated Royal Nepal Army men who are often poorly trained.
Anytime another bus might go off like an ignited matchbox, at the mercy of whim of some trigger-happy Maoist executive. With th ecoming of festival season, tens of thousands of Nepalis return to their home villages and towns. Public buses are the chief means of transport for these people. Although a truce can be expected during Dashain, small miscalculation by the rebels can trigger a human catastrophe. Travelling by buses is ticking time bomb. Anytime it can go off. Not only buses, private cars and SUVs are also potential targets. Incidents of Maoists stopping and torching vehicles, although passengers have been spared, is quite common. A non-insured vehicle can be a source of terrible loss to its owner.
Army has recently purchased WZ-523 APCs from China. these can be used for highway security. however, the army needs more than the six purchased to patrol the major highways.
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