Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Ceasefire breakup, possible artillery acquisitions

The ceasefire is no more. The Maoists have broken the ceasefire on their own terms. They probably wish to target the government's municipal polls. The parties have said their 12 point understanding still sticks despite bombings which have followed the breakup of the ceasefire. Maoists have targeted flea market and public offices. They do not seem to have guts to attack the security forces. Their aim is to create panic among the public so as to create pressure upon the government to give in to their demands or at least appreciate their power.
Also on the news was the wrap up of military operation by government in Rolpa. Army units should keep up the pressure on Maoists in their strongholds. At least that's gonna keep many cadres busy on the defensive and on the run. The government should never hand over the initiative to the rebels. Limiting government action to reactive moves will leave the rebels with the upper hand.
A local weekly reported some time back that Maoists wanted to import artillery pieces to step up their war effort. Artillery is useful only agianst fixed positions. Positional battles for territory will involve artillery duels and bombardments to support infantry offensive. If in any case, the rebels do acquire artillery, the government should quickly acquire attack helicopters and fixed wing strike capability aircraft. These aircraft should be equipped with thermal sensors to detect artillery pieces under intensive camouflage. Artillery raids on built up area can cause horrendous civilian casualties in previously unseen proportions in Nepal.
Artillery was extensively used by such insurgent forces like the Viet Minh in the 1950s, LTTE in present Sri Lanka. If it can persuade India, Indian military assets should be tasked to destroy any heavy arms which find their way in the rebel arsenal. But it is always wise to rely on one's own defense forces to do clean up one's own backyard.