Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Indo-Pak Standoff

How their forces compare in the eventuality of war

-Published in Space Time Today, Thursday, January 10, 2002

Since the attack on the Indian parliament some week ago by militants sopposedly based in Pakistan, relations between the two giant South Asian neighbors have been chilly. There were reports of troop buildup in both sides of the Indo-Pak border. the tension has continued despite presence of both Indian and Pakistani leaders at the eleventh SAARC summit in Kathmandu. The handshake between Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee has been seen by observers as a gesture of warming relations between the two countries. However, tension remains, as India is demanding that Pakistan crackdown on groups which it [India] suspects are behind the parliament attack. Pakistan has said it will do its best, but this hasn't satisfied India.

Just after the attack on parliament by gunmen and suicide bombers, India accused groups based in Pakistan for the attacks. Some Indian commentators talked of launching surgical strikes against what they call terrorist camps inside pakistan controlled Kashmir. This action would be modeled on the US campaign against terror in Afghanistan. Pakistani president Musharraf commented that any adventurism on India's part against his nation would be met by force. The option available with India in such a strike would be to use its larger air force. It could send strike aircraft to bomb suspected camps in Pakistan controlled Kashmir. But the iarcraft would have to face Pakistani anti-aircraft fire, both missiles and guns. Pakistani air defenses are stronger than those of the Taliban. Besides ground based air defense systems, Pakisatni air force is powerful. Pakistan fields highly capable US built F-16 fighters, which could seriously jeopardize Indian attempts to violate Pakistani airspace. Besides, the fear of escalation [of violence] is too great. Any small military action could go out of control and spread elsewhere.

Both India and Pakistan are now nuclear powers. Not only do they have nuclear bombs but also the means to deliver them. india by far, according to experts, has greater number of nuclear weapons. But numbers matter less, for effects of these weapons are far too deadly. Both countries have developed or purchased short and medium range ballistic missiles to deliver nuclear weapons. ballistic missiles are almost unstoppable means of delivering nuclear weapons. The US is developing National Missile Defense (NMD) system to counter threat of ballistic missiles. It is reasonable to believe that many ballistic missiles possessed by India and Pakistan are on alert and on ready to fire positions since the escalation of tension.

Tens of thousands of army troops have been on alert due to tension between India and Pakistan. Indian Army is 1.2 million strong while the smaller Pakistan Army counts on to about 600,000 personnel. Indian Army also has about 3,500 tanks comapred to about Pakistan's about 2,000. The number of modern tanks is greater with India while Pakistan also has a few hundred very modern T-80 tanks purchased from Ukraine. To counter this threat, India purchased a few hundred more advanced T-90 tanks from Russia. both India and Pakistan are also building indigenous tanks by the names of Arjun and Al Khalid, respectively. Mechanization in armies of both countries is weak. India has three armored divisions. A division is a large unit of up to 14,000 troops. Armored divisions have about 250 tanks andd similar number of armored personnel carriers, artillery, engineers and other support arms. Pakistan has two armored divisions. Besides, the armored units, Indian army fields 27 infantry divisions. pakistan army has 19 divisions. Only India with its larger army has the ability to mount offensive against Pakistan if it chooses to do so. The Pakistan Army, on the other hand, is sufficient for defense but incapable of launching large offensive on India. Many observers believe by arming and training Kashmiri militants, pakistan has managed to tie down almost a third of India's army strength to fighting insurgency in Kashmir. Some believe this is a part of Pakistan's military strategy.

In terms of air power, both countries lack many of the sophisticated modern systems like those possessed by the US. Indian Air Force is large with over seven hundred warplanes. Pakistan Air Force is much smaller with up to 450 combat aircraft. Indian Air Force is almost totally equipped aircraft of Russian origin. Pkaistan has largely imported aircraft from China fater it was unable to obtain quality aircraft from the US. Some of the modern Indian fighter aircraft like the Su-30, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000are very capable. But their effectiveness is limited due to lack of support systems like Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) in the Indian Air Force. Older Indian strike aircraft like the MiG-23 lack new Electronic Counter Measure (ECM) to defeat ground based air defenses. The Indian Air Force is simply incapable of fighting a sustained air campaign like the Persian Gulf War or even the US strikes against Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force is even limited in its capability. Its only modern aircraft the US built F-16s are capable of both air to air and air to ground combat. But, although F-16s are very gooda s tactical fighters, their effectiveness in air combat has been marred by lack of medium range air to air missiles. The aircraft Pakistan has purchased from China like the Q-5 and F-7 are poor in terms of their combat capability.

In terms of naval capabilities, India leads Pakistan for it possesses an aircraft carrier, which deploys British built Harrier jet fighters.The number of other warships like destroyers, corvettes and patrol boats and submarines is greater in Indian service. India has indigenously designed Delhi class destroyers, Kashin class destroyers, Tarantul class corvettes and Nanuchka missile boats all armed with surface warfare missiles. India has over ten Kilo submarines. Pakistan has ageing Gearing destroyers armed with harpoon anti-ship misiles. It also has Chinese built missile boats. Among Pakistani submarines, the Agosta class French built models are superior boats. In the event of major conflict between India and Pakistan, Indian strategy would be to blockade Pakistani ports with its Navy. Pakistani warships, particularly its submarines would have the job of breaking the blockade.

India nad Pakistan have been locked in bitter argument over the disputed territory of Kashmir. This has been a major point of consternation between the two countries. Unless solved, Kashmir issue will continue to divide these two countries that share many cultural aspects. From time to time India and Pakistan flex their muscles and it seems war is imminent. It is for these countries to decide that war in modern sense is not only the cost of lives but also a huge loss in terms of money. Modern wars are terribly expensive.
THE END
Sourced from Janes Information Group materials including Fleet Command, Janes Defense Weekly and other literature. The author has special permission to cite Janes as a source of defense news and information.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Ode to Juno

-Bei die Seekueste, Santa Monica, Pacific Ocean

Oh goddess Juno, bitte finden,
ein braut fuer mich,
Es ist mein ernst wuenschen.

Minerva, machen mir staerker,
Venus, machen mir wuerdig und schoen,
Juno, foerdern ein wuerdig lieber.

Fuer das End auf Zeit

Goddesses at Getty

December 27, 2008

I experienced something spectacular at Getty today. The images of goddesses, Minerva, Juno and Venus, those who took sides in Homer's Iliad, had a profound effect on me. The images by an English guild artist,----- was the highest form of devotional art. The details in the craftsmanship exemplifies exceptional professionalism of the 18th century. The image of Seneca was also most beautiful. The Roman statesman's natural form suits his scholarly image, a person who wrote and travelled extensively. Seneca mentioned Imaos (Himalayas) mountains in his writings.

His Majesty Louis XIV was magnificent by any order. Particularly, interesting were his high heeled shoes. The fleur de lis on his cape reminded me of my cub scout days in 1986. The tapestries in the exhibit carries each visitor to a time in pre-French revolution Europe when European royal families and nobility enjoyed the serene beauty of nature and calm life. Hunting with composite bow and enjoying tea in an Oriental (Chinese) garden shows a profound impact of Marco Polo's introduction of Orient in the period of Rennaissance and neo-classicism. The European guilds reached artistic heights in sharp contrast to Middle Eastern iconoclastic art.

Columbus must have had a great desire to reach the orient through another route to reopen the Orient, which was under Ottoman blockade. He instead discovered the New World and Spain moved westward.

The amazing clocks, exceptional example of high craftsmanship, hava images of dragons and lions, engaraved with painstaking detail. The rush of blue blood as a Rana gave me a new sense of self esteem and I quickly thought of Nepal's honeymoon with the West after Sir Jung Bahadur's European tour. The imagery is chronicled in 'The Wake of the White Tiger' by Diamond Rana. The image of Greta muwa (Greta Mary Rana), the work's English translator, came vividly into my mind. At that moment, I wanted to celebrate Sir Juddha Rana's birthday in next April 19.

In the exhibit, 'Captured Emotions:Baroque Paintings in Bologna, 1575-1725, Christian imagery was vivid. Moses, religious persecution, executions are brilliantly depicted by the Italian painters. Joseph and Potiphar's wife gave a glimpse of adultery. The fall of man, depicted Adam and Eve's expulsion from Eden. Adam and Eve are wearing animal hide while an angel armed with a flaming sword guards against their reentry. Also painted are images of Jesus, before his execution.

The painting which had a profound effect on me as a Xavierian was The Vision of St. Ignatius of Loyola by Demenchino (Domenico Zampieri), an Italian painter who depicts the saint with the rendition of the vision of Christ and Moses?? in La Storta village. St. Ignatius was canonized in 1622 and was one of the leaders of Society of Jesus, an order instituted by Pope --- to counter Reformation. All of my good teachers were Jesuits. Besides, Sir Juddha had the Italian decoration, SS order of Maurice and Lazarus, which drew me to this particular painting.

Also notable is the panorama of Los Angeles visible from the terrace. The mountains in the east, the airplanes landing in Los Angeles International (LAX), and three cargo ships with the setting sun, the red sky, reminded me of the most memorable moment of my life. In the distance, high rise of downtown LA, all made look as if the city has a new spirit. A new elegance as America's number two city.

The green hills in which the center rests radiates peace and happiness. Only sights of Thessalonoki and Parthenon in Greece has more majesty. Every time I come to the Getty, I touch the marble slabs as I wonder at the artistic and aesthetic appeal. The structure is a marvel of American architecture. I first read about the Getty in 2006 issue of Vanity Fair. And here today, for my second time, I saw this great museum, an epitome of Western collection. I couldn't help think of the Greek monarch and the Spanish king, His Majesty Juan Carlos Bourbon y Bourbon (Queen Sophia is Greek) whose coronation I had witnessed in the special issue of Newsweek. General Franco was also depicted in that issue which my granddad Capt. Dadhi Shumsher had.

The great Romans, Julius Caesar, Cnaeus Pompeius Magnus and Marcus Licinius Crassus were all over my spirit. The sculpture of woman protecting her son was amazing expression of high art with maternal love. I stood and gazed at the shield of Minerva. Apollo looked elegant, crafted the same way as Michaelangelo's David. It captivates all mankind who love and admire art.

As I rode on the tram on my way down, I saw a most beautiful German looking woman. Her face had a symmetry and beauty of unparalleled in the Orient. Her long fingernails her beautiful composure will last in my mind for a long long time. "Juno!", I gasped.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Arafat: Peacemaker or terrorist?

-By Pritam S Rana

Published in The Kathmandu Post, November 13, 2004, Saturday

Yasser Arafat died on November 11, 2004 leaving behind a legacy that can either bring peace between Palestinians and Israelis or it could mean decades of conflict. The man, Arafat, whose last office was the president of Palestinian Authority wasa symbol to Palestinians and Rabas as the champion of Palestinian nationalism. His unique style of wearing his keffiyeh, which looked like the map of "Palestine", is remebered by many of his admirers. His "legendary exploits" in his long struggle against Israel made him a role model not only for Arabs and Palestinians but also for all Muslims around the world. But despite Arafat's stature as father figure of the Palestinian movement for statehood, in his long struggle against Israel, Arafat employed violence against not only armed forces of his opponents but also against civilians, including women and children. He practiced violence for political aims and thus fully qualifies to the tag of an accomplished international terrorist. Later in his life, Arafat sought diplomatic victory to military solution, but he and his organization never gave up violence as a tool to achieve Palestinian statehood and rights.

According to PLO official version, Mohammed Yasser Abdul-Raouf Qudwa al Husseini, was born in August 24, 1929 in Jerusalem purportedly related to Jerusalem Husseini clan. Many historians including Christophe Bolanski, Jihan el Tahri and Said Aburish say Arafat was actually born in Cairo, Egypt. Aburish claims that "Arafat sought to establish his Palestinian credentials and promote his eventual claim to leadership...". During 1948, the [first] Arab Israeli War, Arafat left Cairo University to fight for Palestinian independence. During Suez crisis [1956], Arafat was an Egyptian Army officer. After Suez war, Arafat moved to Kuwait and founded, Fatah, an organization dedicated to forming Palestine in place of Israel and Jordan. Fatah's one of the first attempts was to raid Israel and to destroy a water pump in 1964. The Fatah mounted numerous raids inside Israel from Jordan, Lebanon and Gaza during the time. These raids from very early on did not distinguish military and civilians. All Israelis even children were targets. from this observation, we can deduce the type of mentality of rafat and his accomplices.

Also in 1964, The Arab League created the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as a tool in the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict. Fatah, initially appprehensive of PLO, gradually became its dominant faction. PLO recognized in 1967, after Arab defeat at the hands of Israel, that it could not count on Arab states to defeat Israel. therefore, it chose the path of international terrorism, which established PLO's reputation. In 1968, the Palestine National Council met and revised their charter to liberate Palestine with armed struggle. Notably, Yasser Arafat was elected chairman of of the PLO in 1969, apost he held till his death. In 1970, Jordan based Palestinians and King Hussein's forces fought bitterly until Arafat and his supporters had to leave Jordan for Lebanon. This was bitter defeat for Arafat as he lost an important bastion to attack Israel. In 1972, in most barabaric manner defying all international norms, a Fatah faction calling itself Black September group, murdered 11 Israeli athletes in Olympic village of Munich.

After another defeat of the raba sates in 1973, Arafat decided to shift from terrorism to diplomatic offensive against Israel. He wanted to legitimize his crusade. PLO gained important recognition from the United Nations and Arab League as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Arafat and his PLO were based in much of the 1970s in Lebanon. there, the PLO created such a huge apparatus, a state within a state was formed which looked after the welfare of the Palestinians as well as arming them. Lebanon served as the new bastion to raid Israel. Commando raids and artillery bombardment in Israel forced it [Israel] to encroach upon Lebanese territory. 1n 1978, a limited invasion and in 1982, a full-scale invasion were results of Arafat and his Palestinian fedayeens' anti-Israeli activity. PLO helped to destabilize Lebanon to such an extent that it contributed to a civil war and thousands of Lebanese were persecuted and killed by Palestinian fighters. Araft was chased out of Lebanon to Tunisia. In 1985, hijacking of cruise liner "Achille Lauro" implicated Palestinians from Arafat's organization, which resulted in murder of a wheelchair-bound Jewish passenger.

In 1988, before UN general asembly, Arafat vowed to give up terrorism and promised recognition of Israel's right to existence. we were seeing the transformation of Aafat, the master terrorist to Arafat, the statesman. However later, we come to know he had not altogether given up terrorism. Ginally in 1991 Madrid conference, israel talked openly with Palestinians for the first time. Secret Oslo negotiations followed with aim to give Palestinaians self-rule. On September 13, 1993, Israel and Palestinians signed Declaration of Principles hosted by US president Bill Clinton. Yasser Arafat, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, the nobel signatories were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the following year. Arafat's reasons to change into a peacenik can be attributed to such reasons as the collapse of his primary backer, the Soviet Union. Besides, Rafat must have understood that Israel and its ally, the US are far too stronger for him to challenge militarily. He must have tried to win the hearts and minds of the world by going for legitimate claims in a peaceful diplomatic manner.

Arfat is also known for Arab resistance movement called the Intifada, which took place amidst great international publicity in 1988-89. the spectacle of rock throwing youths pitted against Israel's army dominated news across the world and helped gain sympathy of the world's people for the Palestinians. Arafat was declared president of the Palestinian Authority in 1996. The issue of Jerusalem, Jewish settlement and terrorism by radical Islamists and continuing struggle mars Israeli-Palestinian relations to this day. The next generation of leaders ought to understand that a Palestinian state cannot stand in opposition to Israel. Despite historic rivalry illustrated with Arafat's life itself, there is no alternative to peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinians need peacemakers not terrorists.

Note:-Some facts are borrowed from www.wikipedia.org; the current fighting initiated by Hamas denotes that war is imminent. Provocations of rocket strikes into Sderot and towns in the interior has invited Israeli reprisals.
(to be continued...)

Ignominious end of Saddam

-By Pritam S Rana

Published in The Kathmandu Post, January 2, 2007, Tuesday

During Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq, posters often compared him with Babylon's ancient rulers, Hammurabi and Nebuchadnezzar. Saddam considered himself all powerful - able to make any decision, eliminate any opposition and rule with absolute impunity just like the ancient emperors. But on the fateful day of December 30, 2006, he was hanged after he was found guilty of crimes against humanity. He was sentenced to death by an Iraqi court for ordering the 1982 killing of 148 Shiite villagers in Dujail, Iraq, which was only a small part of his long catalogue of deaths and sufferings he caused among Iraqis and people of other neighboring countries.

By 1968, Saddam had become number two man in Iraq after pan-Arabist Baath party solidified its grip into that country. Previously Iraqi politics had been rather volatile with coups and counter-coups, assasination attempts against incumbent leaders. As Saddam was consolidating power within the Baath party leadership hierarchy, the 1973 oil crisis helped him generate massive revenues from an unprecedented rise in fuel prices then. Saddam was able to expand his agenda with the money into various social, agrarian, and other development works in his country. He provided free education, and health care which helped him gain countless well-wishers in his country.

In 1979, Saddam forced ailing Ahmad Hassan al-Bakr from power and assumed presidency for Iraq for himself, formally becoming Iraq's all-in-all. Saddam's first step after becoming president was the mass purging in the ruling Baath party. In a party assembly called by him in the same year, Saddam expunged 68 other Baathists among which 22 were reportedly executed. This was how Saddam solidified his power base, eliminating any possible threat to his one man rule. Saddam's foreign policy was even bloodier. Saddam closely remembered waht he thought was unequal agreement with Iran in the 1970s, which was then ruled by the Shah and was a close ally of Washington. As revolution swept away the Shah and the US leverage in Iran, Saddam grew suspicious of Iran's new Islamist revolutionary government. Fearing that Iran's Shiite leadership might incite Iraq's own sizeable number of Shiites to rebel against his regime, Saddam ordered invasion of Iran in 1980. The war with Iran lasted for 8 years and it killed nearly two million people from the two countries. During the war, Iraq acquired modern arms from primarily Soviet Union, China and France. Some analysts have pointed out that US shared intelligence to Saddam's regime during the war. Iran-Iraq war was marked by barbaric bombings of civilian targets and of attacks against neutral shipping. Also in 1988, the Saddam regime demonstrated that it was prepared to violate all international agreements on using banned weapons. Having already used chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers, Saddam's air force bombed the town of Halabja with nerve and mustard agents, killing about 5,000 Kurdish civilians and maiming another 10,000. Saddam's lust of conquest was not lost for long. After two years of the end of the costly war with Iran, Saddam began quarrels with a tiny but affluent oil rich Kuwait. He invaded Kuwait in 1990 and claimed "Kuwait was an Iraqi province." The whole world led by US quickly condemned Iraq's latest aggression and US led coalition massed combat troops in Saudi Arabia ostensibly to prevent any Iraqi move against Saudi Arabia, world's leading oil producer. Saddam was foolish enough to think that he could challenge the US military power. On clear skies of the open desert terrain of the region, US airpower paralyzed Iraqi military and other important targets within days of hostilities in 1991. As Saddam refused to pull out from Kuwait, a largest armored force ever assembled since World War II entered Kuwait, decimated Iraqi resistance and liberated Kuwait within days. The cease-fire agreement allowed Iraq to enjoy its sovereignty but it had to pledge to give away its weapons of mass destruction. It also imposed no fly zones over Iraqi airspace to protect Iraqi minorities from air raids by Saddam's air force. Another phase of bloody events followed the 1991 Gulf War. Encouraged by Iraq's defeat in Kuwait and prodded by US administration to rebel against Saddam, the Shiite population in the south and the Kurds in the north of Iraq challenged baghdad's authority. As no help came from Washington, Saddam's remnant troops massacred tens of thousands of would be resistance fighters and their families. Thus Saddam remained unchallenged. The 2001 World Trade Center attacks profoundly influenced the Americans to believe that all anti-US regimes in the world could have links with Al Qaida and Osama bin Laden. Saddam, an old time foe who had been challenging UN arms inspectors was the prime target for the Bush administration in its global war on terror. US intelligence analysts possibly calculated that Al Qaida's elusive organization married to Saddam's purported arsenal of chemical, biological and nuclear would pose a lethal threat to Washington and its allies. So in 2003, the US military invaded Iraq. After facing an array of resistance within Iraq, the US military captured Saddam on December 2003. After a long series of trials marked by assasination of lawyers and other hindrances, Saddam was finally sentenced to die on November 5, 2006 as ther verdict was upheld by Iraq's highest appeals court. Saddam paid for his life for his hands were bloody. Many opposed Saddam's hanging while others spoke against death penalty. Saddam had done many positive things to his country. He modernized his country, gave his people free health and education and oil subsidy, tax breaks, etc. But, he allowed his two sons to go on a killing spree in his country. He himself ordered killings of his closest aides, his own people and people of his neighboring countries. After all, he also ordered the murder of his own son-in-laws. So how do we remember Saddam? Do we forget his crimes and suffering he caused to so many families? If we end up supporting dictators and still say we support democratic values, I think it would be a great contradiction.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Taliban challenge in Afghanistan

Published Sunday, June 24, 2007, The Kathmandu Post

-By Pritam S Rana

Wire reports from Afghanistan tell a grim story. Suicide attacks and kidnappings along with other acts of violence are common almost everyday. the Taliban opposition and its supporter, Al Qaida, are active in destabilizing the nascent peace and sense of security. By firmly capitalizing on the increasingly heavy civilian casualties in retaliatory military actions by US and NATO forces in the country, the Taliban seems to be organizing a massive resistance aimed to evict the foreign forces once and for all from the country.

Part of the Taliban strategy is to divide Western resolve to democratize and bring stability to the country.. Some time back, the Taliban took French and Italian citizens hostages and then released them against the expectation that they will be executed. The Taliban knows that France is a vocal critic of US foreign policy and thus by offering olive branch to the French, the hard-line Islamic group aimed to create a fissure in the Western (Atlantic) alliance especially in the already divided NATO. many of the NATO member states who have military detachments in Afghanistan have strict caveats (word borrowed from www.wikipedia.org) restricting offensive military operations. The Taliban wants to take advantage of these limitations as illustrated by the killing of Finnish soldier some time back. Finland is a non-NATO neutral European state.

The almost daily instances of suicide bombings, firefights, with US and NATO forces and abductions are part of Taliban's strategy to keep up the pressure on the foreign forces. The increasing civilian casualties, which has already enraged Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, serve the purposes of the Taliban. The Taliban seeks to mobilize the the civilian population against the foreign forces and draw its parallels with the Soviet Union's military, the hated occupier against whom the Muhjahedeen resistance fought tenaciously in the 1980s. besides relying on hardcore Taliban fighters to conduct low-intensity insurgency against Afghan security forces and its foreign allies, it can be deduced that the Taliban has recruited the relatives of those killed in US and NATO retaliatory raids to conduct the devastating suicide bombings in urban centers. Security is supposed to be tight in such areas, but it is a tough task for security men to spot a potential suicide bomber from ordinary city dwellers.

The NATO/ISAF forces have structured Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) at various provinces of the country. these are a combination of civilian and military personnel who are engaged in performing small recosntsrution projects. they also provide security to other civilian agencies like the USAID who are involved in recosntruction work or aid. Taliban wants to target these outposts and want to deny the civilian populace the benefits of these efforts. It want(s) the 'foreign occupiers' to go so it can once agian run Afghanistan in strict puritanical Islamic code. It may also want to harbor Al Qaida again so it can once again plan and execute terrorist operations against the 'hated United States' and its allies.

The Taliban focused its thrusts in southern part of Afganistan since last few years where British forces are posted. The death of Mullah Dadullah, a senior Taliban commander in May was a hard earned victory for the Afghan and allied forces. dadullah was said to be responsible for the massacres of Shia Muslims in 2001 and was a grotesque and bloodthirsty individual. With such leaders, Taliban hopes to impose its authority and raise a rallying cry against the foreigners in the country and its 'puppet' government led by Hamid Karzai.

There is no doubt that the prsence of foreign forces who are authorized by UN Security Council is necessary to help rebuild Afganistan. teh country needs foreign assistance more than ever. However, the awarding of rebuilding contracts exclusively to Americans and Europeans would be seen with much scrutiny by the Taliban sympathizers. Despite the talk of possible dialogue with Taliban by Afgan leader Karzai, they haven't yielded anything. until the Tliban decides to lay down arms and give up its anteliluvian and xenophobic ideology, there can be no peace in Afghanistan. Afganistan has much to do to control illegal poppy cultivation and opium smuggling. Continued armed conflict would curtail such efforts, which is sure to destabilize the country for a long time.

Instead of moving toward modernity and globalization, the ideas espoused by Taliban and its transnational terrorist network, Al Qaida, would transform Afganistan into an Islamic caliphate (ref: Insurgency and Terrorism by Bard O'Neill), far removed from reality. being one of the poorest countries in the world despite being located on an area of immense geo-strategic potential (ref:Halsford Mackinder's geopolitical theory utilized by Hitler in June 22, 1941), afghanistan deserves a better chance.. Teh US and Western powers have strategic interest in Afghanistan. Teh country can allow oil pipelines through Central Asia to Pakistan and thus gain much. Suffering from endemic fighting since late 1970s, the time has finally come for Afghan people to see lasting and permanent peace.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

When Dragon snarls at Eagle

Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.

Indo-Russian ties: Arms deal strong as ever

-By Pritam S Rana
Published on The Kathmandu Post, Thursday, October 12, 2000

Russian President Valadimir Putin's recent visit to India marks the continuation of more than 40 yerars of strategic partnership between the two countries. India and the former Soviet Union first signed the Friendship and Cooperation treaty in the early sixties, a key clause in it allowed the Indians to purchase Russian armmament at reduced "friendly price". The special relationship between India and Russia has continued though it soemwhat changed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The Russian decision to sell arms tot he Indians was in line wityh their policy of seeking allies and sympathizers for theirt cause cause during the Cold War. India, on its part, was concerned with its arch-rival Pakistan's entry into SEATO (South Asia Treaty Organization), a US led collective security organization, which insured a steady flow of US arms to Pakistan. It is to be noted that India itself refused to join SEATO for it would contradict India's avowed stand of neutrality in the Cold War. Some still believe that Indian leaders of the time were sympathetic to Moscow due to the fact that both countries pursued socialistic principles. The more realistic reason (raison de'etre, comments please) was however, economics. The Russians offered their arms for a fraction of the price Western weapons cost. Besides, Indian policy makers perceived that the threat posed by China required large arms purchases from abroad. The Indians could not find a better deal. In the 1962 Sino-Indian border war, China captured large chunks of Indian territory in Aksai Chin (Eastern Kashmir) and NEFA (area north of Assam). From then onwards, Indian security perception was dominated by China so much that it preceded Pakistan. Also during this time, the Sino-Soviet schism had intensified and there were border incidents between the erstwhile communist allies. Thus, Soviet arms export to India served the strategy of anatagonizing and isolating China China as well.

Moscow began supplying arms worth billions and billions of dollars to New Delhi, which included weapons of every category, meant for all the three services of Indian defense, namely the Army, Air Force and the Navy. The Indian Army received tanks, personnel carriers, artillery, antitank missiles and guns nad transport trucks. the Indian Air Force took jet interceptors, strike aircraft, transport aircraft, surface to air missiles and related radar equipment. The Indian Navy gradually added destroyers, corvettes, missile boats, submarines and realted weapons and spares. This trend continued ... (to be continued)


(to be continued....)
Note:- India's refusal to sign SEATO resulted in India's alignment with Russia. India could serve as a conduit for re-export of sensitive technology to Moscow.

Airpower in the Hands of Tamil Tigers

-Pritam S Rana
Published in The Kathmandu Post, Saturday, May 19, 2007

The acquisition of air power by Tamil Tiger rebels lately in Sri Lanka is a matter of immense importance to scholars of insurgency. It is unprecedented in the sense that no rebel outfit in the post-World War II history of the region has acquired aircraft to be used for various military applications. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) managed to acquire light rainer aircraft after fighting primarily on the ground and sea for many years and use the newly acquired capability skilfully against its enemy, the Sri Lankan military. The effect, although limited in military value, has had a powerful psychological impact on not only the Sri Lankans but alarm bells have rung as far away as New Delhi and Washington.

Although the attack on Katunayake airbase on March 2007 was prominently covered by the media and was dubbed as the first air raid by the Tamil rebels, it is thought that the Tigers has been preparing for many years to acquire air capability. According to wikipedia.org, the LTTE credits an Indian trained aeronautical engineer, "Colonel Shankar", for the formation of Air Tigers or Vaanpuligal. Existence of Tiger flown aircraft was reportedly existing since as early as 1998. But the Sri Lankan government officials refused to believe it saying it was nothing but LTTE propaganda.

The suddenly on March 26, 2007, two light Tamil Tiger flown aircraft, believed to be Czech designed Zlin Z-143s penetrated Katunayake airbase north of Colombo dropping several light bombs. Three air force personnel were killed and another 16 were wounded. It was thought that the Tigers intended to take out Sri Lankan Air Force MiG-27s and Kfir jets parked on the tarmac but did not succeed. From being a master of the Sri Lankan sky (aerospace), the air force suddenly faced a threat of aerial bombing. Until then it had a monopoly in the protracted armed conflict in the island nation. Sri Lankan generals lacked a clear foresight and could not even imagine that the LTTE had a multi-dimensional threat. Sri Lankan defense officials had invested only in aircraft like Israeli made Kfirs and Russian designed MiG-27s, which are primarily ground attack aircraft. These aircraft have restricted air combat capability and are thus not suitable to conduct air superiority operations to counter Tamil aircraft in the air. therefore, Sri lankan government now has to purchase surface to air missiles to guard its air bases and other military installations. it is also possible that LTTE might resort to attack economic targets or even civilians. So air defesne would be the top priority for Sri Lankan generals. There might also be pressure on the Sri Lankan Air Force to focus on locating Tiger airfields and bombing them out of commission. Its traditional air support role would have to be curtial meaning that ground forces and naval forces have to fend for themselves. having only around 20 combat aircraft grouped in two squadrons, the new pressure created by Tamil Tiger air capability would be severe on Sri Lankan Air Force. it does not take an expert to see that Sri Lanka won't be able to afford sexy jet fighters to counter LTTE air power as its economy is already feeling the pinch of renewed hostilities.

According to media reports, India was admamant that the radars it supplied to Sri Lanka were perfectly all right. Small aircraft like Zlin Z-143 when flying low are difficult for advanced interceptors like MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 in Indian service to detect, track and achieve a lock on such small and elusive target. A proven example is the incident in 1987 when a 19-year old German, mathias Rust, eluded the massive air defense systemof the then Soviet Union and landed his small airplane at the Red Square, Moscow.

Intelligence and military officials in India too must be worried about the LTTE's air capability. india is nervous that a host of insurgents poised against it might somehow acquire aircraft to drop bombs or worse, chemical or biological weapons. The US too cannot ignore the threat as it too faces insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq where were insurgents acquiring air power could only mean deep trouble. The Americans have not yet forgotten how difficult it is to shoot down small and elusive intruders. They know this well from their experience in Korea nad Vietnam.

The Tamil Tigers are fighting against a thrid world power, the Sri Lankan government. The tigers control a huge swathe of territory where they enjoy support from the Tamil population. The Tamil separatists have sought to address a grievance of discrimination by the majority Sinhalas for years. Broad support base and help from expatriate Tamils have allowed the Tigers to create a formidable organization which includes Sea Tigers (the Tiger navy) and Black Tigers (suicide unit). Long experience of fighting the government forces coupled with broad base support has allowed the Tigers to create an air arm to carry out their protracted struggle. if others emulate it, it means more problems for governments.

THE END

Authors' note:- I saw a similar article on The Economist. I saw that after I published it. My resource base for soem facts is www.wikipedia.org. Other analysis due to my extensive reading of various Western publications. I still want to give a major credit to Jane's Defense Weekly for teaching me about military hardware identification. I own their Tanks (bought in Ekta Educational Palace, Jawalakhel, Nepal and Airplane Handbook bought in a bookstore in Friar Street, Van Nuys. Some credit goes to Bill Sweetman's Fighter Combat in the Jet Age, which taught me experience of the USAF in Korea and Vietnam. More scholarly credit goes to Dr. Thomas A. Marks, who lectured me on counter-insurgency strategies through books like Bard O'Neill's Insurgency and Terrorism and the ICASP journal.

Airpower in Nepalese context

Need for (a)symmetric response to rebels' threats
-Published in Space Time Today, Tuesday, May 21, 2002

By Pritam S Rana

The idea of employing aircraft for military purposes is still relatively new in Nepal even though this phenomenon has been in existence since around the beginning of the 20th century. The main reason attributed for this lack of development in military avaiation in Nepal is the underdeveloped situation and minimal industrialization of our country. Unfloding events in the present time have shown that a certain minimum military aviation is required to carry out military strikes to support ground troops.

The employment of aviation by the military predates use of aircraft. Balloons were used as far as back in the American Civil War (1861-65) for observation purposes. In World War I (1914-1918), aircraft had already made their debut and were initially used for observation. Later artillery obsservers who controlled fires of ground-based cannons also flew and found they could observe targets better from the air. Soon airplanes began fighting each other in the sky with machine guns. In World War II, great changes came in technology as planes became more and more powerful. Bombers, fighters and reconnaissance aircraft dominated the skies in every battlefront and the idea of air power became significant in the minds of military commanders and civilains alike.

In the Korean War (1950-1953) US airpower significantly nullified Chinese-North Korean superiority in numbers on the ground. In the next important conflict in the world, air power was used ever increasingly. In 1967, Israel used its air force to destroy Arab air force and armies. When the US was involved in Vietnam it used a variety of aircraft: jet fighters to bomb infrastructure and light counter insurgency (COIN) aircraft types to counter Viet Cong infiltration. The war between India and Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 also saw use of air force of both nations. In countless civil wars, which followed World War II, military aviation has been in use in one form or another. 1n 1991 Persian Gulf War, US used its air power at its best reducing Iraqi defenses and thus minimizing resistance to friendly ground forces.

In our country, combat aircraft have not been in use. The possibility existed in World War II when the then Nepalese government could have asked for British military aircraft for Nepalese service. If such a transfer had occured, Nepal would have had an air force. But there were hardly any airfields in Nepal at that time. Also, educated, trained manpower for flying and maintaining such aircraft did not exist. After World War II, the sophistication of military aircraft rose to such an extent that their costs skyrocketed due to such complexities like jet engines, advanced avionics, weapons like missiles and other equipment. The high cost of maintaining a jet air force certainly precluded any thought in Nepal of keeping such a force. Therefore, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) maintains only transport planes and helicopters.

But now times have changed. Nepal used to be until a few years ago, a very peaceful country. Now, there is an armed rebellion, which aims to overthrow not only the government but also our culture and our values. This armed opposition is growing stronger by the day even though it takes heavy losses. Therefore it is imperative to consider improving the army's land power and to develop and utilize air power to assist land operations.

Currently the helicopters in use mainly for transportation are equipped with door-mounted machine guns. The RNA is using them for offensive purposes. But it is to be understood that door-mounted machine guns have limited effectiveness because aiming is difficult as the helicopters move. Weapons that fire with the axis of the helicopter are are more accurate. The night vision systems fitted in the helicopters should be forward looking infrared (FLIR) and not just night vision goggles (NVGs). FLIR system works on the principle of detecting heat signature and cannot only see in the dark but also through smoke, vegetation and other forms of camouflage. On the other hand NVGs magnify starlight so as to create image and is less effective in detecting movement at night. Helicopters should be used for assault transport and not as gunships.

The government should either procure or lease dedicated counter insurgency (COIN) aircraft. These aircraft and not helicopters should be the gunships. When procuring such aircraft, the government should select the very best, which is highly effective even when used in small numbers. An example of such an aircraft is in service with the US Marines. The aircraft is called OV-10D Bronco and is made by Rockwell Company in the US. It is a twin turboprop engine about 14m long and 13m wide with a maximum speed of 463km/h and a combat radius of 367km. It is armed with three barrel 20mm cannon (1500 rounds carried) and can aslo carry unguided rockets and light bombs. The heart of this aircraft system is the under nose AAS-37 pod equipped with FLIR, laser designator, and automatic video tracker. this pod can slave the 20mm cannon which can fire independently of the axis of the aircraft allowing the pilot to freely move his aircraft while the gunner slaves and fires the weapon. This aircraft is capable of night operations and appears to be highly suitable for Nepalese conditions. The aircraft is least expensive when compared to the cost of modern jet fighters. It is superior to jet airplanes in terms of its endurance and also is faster than helicopters with its larger range. Only trained pilots are required with a team of technicians able to maintain the aircraft avionics and subsystems.

The civil war situation in Nepal loos bleak. Despite imposition of emergency there is no slackening in rebel activity. They appear to be successful in forming large bands and attacking police and army positions. The government should think of assyemtric response to the rebel threat rather than just meeting the rebels on the ground on terms dictated by them. Massed rebel fighters can become easy targets of air assets like the OV-10D Bronco. There are so many new expensive cars being procured for government ministers and officials. So there is no need to assume that such an aircraft would be too expensive for Nepal. Nepal needs a small air force just for the sake of increasing and offlocating firepower so as to employ it effectively against ground-based threat. Employing air power for air defense is a requirement, which cannot be met in Nepal due to high cost of jet interceptors and missiles. The government needs to allocate money to finance a tiny fleet of COIN aircraft if it wants to counter the present rebellion and any other future uprisings in the country. Airpower is important in all forms of military operations. It plays an important role in supporting ground based units and sometimes it can play a decisive role.

* This article is dedicted to my granddad Flying Officer BK Singh, service number 2904, RAF who flew for the Royal Flight in 1950s. He flew DC-3/C-47 Dakotas and other airplanes. After the British left, he also was recalled to drop relief to the beleagured Indian troops in 1962 war with People's Republic of China.

China defying world by persecuting Tibetans

Published on nepaliperspectives.blogspot.com on October 6, 2006

-Pritam S Rana

Reports by news agencies (and those posted on local news portals in Nepal - e.g. "e-kantipur") outline unspeakable cruelty displayed by Chinese authorities against Tibetans attempting to escape flee China. Such acts of inhumanity cannot be permitte d to pass.

According to reports., agroup of about 70 Tibetan refugees including women, children and monks tried to cross into Nepal from the Tibet, on Saturday. Chinese soldiers having prior information of the flight "arrived with weapons and opened fire." According to published reports, about 40 refugees managed to cross into Nepal while two were reportedly killed. Additionally, 2 others have gone "missing."

While the world is focused on conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Darfur, Sri Lanka and other hot spots, Tibet remains till this day, uder a brutal occupation. The Chinese entered Tibet with military forces in 1950 and consolidated it after 1959.

China's indifference towards the people of Tibet is refelcted by Staurday night's tragic event. In stark contrast to universally accepted standards, Chinese soldiers chose to mow down fleeing and unarmed Tibetans for what was termed a 'border violation'. Despite the modernity of their economic enterprise, the Chinese seem to wed to Stalinist dictum of keeping foreigners out and insiders within. The actions of China's border troops show parallels with the attitudes of KGB (border guards).

China may think its economic prowess and its capacity as the world's largest market gives it go ahead to suppress the Tibetan people. It is now established fact that Tibetans are now a minority in their own homeland.

Tibetans are in such a sorry predicament that no country in the world (including the United States) is openly willing to challenge China on its Tibet policy. The US needs China's vast market to sell its produce while other major European powers also do not want to natagonize China for fear of economic retaliation. China, as the world's largest holder of the US treasury's 30-year bond, exercises considerable leverage not just in bi-lateral regional trade, but truly in the smooth functioning of the entire global economy.

Owing to China's increasing economic might, the cause of Tibetan freedom is now championed only by individuals and diminishing groups. They do not receive government support, for fear of antagonizing China. And despite the Tibetan spiritual leader (the Dalai Lama's) heightened staure as a Nobel laureate, the cause he champions appears to be losing momentum.

China's reaction towards the Dalai Lama has been harsh. beijing puts pressure on foreign governments not to welcome the Dalai Lama in their countries. Such pressure is accurately felt in countries like Nepal which is forced to bow down to Beijing in the name of 'peaceful coexistence'.

beijing's propaganda in tandem with the aid it provides to Nepal has been consistent over the years. The leftist and communists in Nepal have steadfastly backed China's claim to Tibet. nepal has held a long relationship with both China and India. Nepal was a trade partner and cobelligerents in different wars of the past. nepal is one of the few countries besides India, which can trace the independence and soverignty of Tibet in the past through a careful study of history. Despite China's constant claim that Tibet was forever part of China, historical analysis reveals that Tibet was only an ally of China during it wars with Nepal. The Chinese simply decided never to leave.

It was a miserable decision by the former Nepali government to close the Tibetan contact offices in nepal. Tibetan people are Nepal's earliest neighbors. Many ethnic groups in Nepal (including the renowned Sherpas and Tamangs) are said to have migrated to Nepal from Tibet. Nepalis and Tibetans have fraternal relations that go back as the time of the Licchavi King Amshuvarma who married his daughter Bhrikuti to the Tibetan King Srong Chong Gampo.

The Chinese on the other hand, came to contact with the Nepalis only after the Tibetans felt threatened by Nepal's expansionist policies in the 18th century. Tibet sought military support from China, which brought them to Nepal's border at that time.
(to be continued...)

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Blue Helmets: Nepal's need

-By Pritam S Rana

Since the past years, violence has continued unabated in Nepal. Several rounds of peace talks have failed to establish peace and tranquility. Locked in political debates concerning the constitution, representation, and appropriate political system, the stakeholders oof this continuing conflict have put the people of this country on a noose of death and destruction. therefore, it is high time that internationmal intervention be invited to settle this conflict once and for all. No international body apart from the United Nations (UN) can play a better role in the Nepali context.

The UN mediation between the government and the Maoists will be far desirable thans aay Indian mediation. Nepalis have goof reason to suspect India for having designs against them. But, the supranational UN has no vested interest in the internal affairs of this country, as most countries of the world are its members. Although it is accused by some that UN has become a tool of the West, close observation disputes the accusation. It is an incomprehensible matter why Nepali political leaders are refusing to invite UN mediation in a conflict, which they cannot resolve themselves. Can the Nepali people be forever held hostage to political wrangling of their leaders? Obviously not. New leaders should rise from among the masses and speak for a UN role in resolving the conflict, whichh ahs already claimed the lives of about 10,000 innocent Nepalis. Can Nepoal afford to be abnother Cambodia or Congo?

It is imperative that the violence in Nepal be mitigated. The government is unable to disarm the Maoist rebels. Instead of controlling violence, the unruly actions of the security forces have unleashed violence among people who are already being tormented by the rebels. The only visible solution to this cycle of violence is the deployment of UN peacekeeping force in Nepal. These forces can, by the virtue of their deployment, deter violence, being perpetrated by Maoist rebels and the government forces, against civilians. There are many advantages of of the deployment of UN peacekeepers. The UN peacekeeping force can provide multilateral support to the country. The peacekeepers can assist in confidence-building measures, power sharing arrangements, election, strengthening the rule of law and also in economic and social development. Many politicians in Nepal have said that election is impossible in the present circumstances as rebels hold sway over major parts of the rural areas. The UN peacekeeprs can oversee this problem. They can act as impartial observers.

The UN force in Nepal will not take sides in the ongoing conflict. Contrary to Maoist suspicion, they will not be targeted by the UN peacekeepers. But Maoists dare not challenge them. They can use force to protect themselves. Also, rules of engagement governing the use of force have been strengthened allowing UN peacekeepers to use "all necessary means" to protect civilians in their immediate vicinity. This means if UN force in Nepal is given this set of rules of engagement, it will deter Maoists from carrying out violent acts against civilians in close proximity of the UN peacekeepers. Nepal has participated in numerous peacekeeping missions throughout the world. But for obvious reasons, The Royasl Nepalese Army will not participate in UN peacekeeping mission in Nepal.

The Nepali government should realise that only concrete steps like inviting UN peacekeepers can really make the difference in Nepal. Placing too much faith in would-be facilitators and mediators from within Nepal will only make matters worse.

The nepali Prime Minister should first build consensus and then ask the UN Secretary General to contemplate a UN peacekeeping mission in Nepal. He can take the matter to the Security Council. The Prime Minster should also direct the foreign ministry to instruct Nepali ambassadors abroad to urge

Notes:- This article resulted in UN's Nepal mission the UNMIN. My application to UN was rehected by Kieran Dwywer and Matthew Kahane, the UN representative to Nepal. My application to go to study peacekeekping in UN school in Brindisi was only ansswered. i would want to request the US government, the principal sponsor and financier of UN to put pressure on such corrupt and negligent attitude by UN staff who have completely failed to prosecute Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), Ram Bahadur Thapa (Badal) and Dr Baburam Bhattarai for crimes against humanity. This coterie has to tried in ICC Den Haag and be sentenced to life in prison. I invoke this declaration as grea great grandson of Col. Man Shumsher Rana, Attorney General of Nepal and a loyal citizen.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Hidden contest: Indo-Pak quest for nuclear weapons

Published on The Kathmandu Post, Tuesday, December 26, 2000
-By Pritam S Rana

The nuclear tests conducted by India and Pakistan in 1998 confirmed the long held suspicion that these regional rivals were on the firm track of developing nuclear arsenals at the expense of regional security, in order to enhance their status as major regional powers. Currently, hidden from the headlines, these powers are undertaking a massive build-up of nuclear weapons and the means to develop them. this is happening with the negligence of of the international community into this impending crisis which can at any time in the future blow into a nuclear holocaust having serious consequences to the region, if not the whole world.

Necessity: The desire to acquire nuclear weapon was first realised in India during the reign of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, if not earlier. This has direct relation to Sino-Indian hostility beginning in 1962, since when India sought to match China's enormous military power. Nuclear weapons would, the Indians believed, the ultimate guarantor of Indian security from Chinese numerical superiority in conventional forces. The 1974 so-called "peaceful nuclear explosion" marked India's entry into the limited few who possessed nuclear arms. China exploded its nuclear weapon back in 1964. The problem in South Asia was that India wasn't alone in feeling threatened from a potential superior adversary. Pakistan felt the same; it felt the might of India would challenge its "pivotal" position, as a counterweight to Indian hegemony in the region. The Kashmir dispute has further served to fuel Indo-Pak conflict to a proportion that even the lone superpower, The US, feels the bit of a chill.

Since 1974, India has had a weapons programme in its nuclear research effort. Besides, tapping on nuclear technology for power stations, the fissile material from these and other weapon dedicated nuclear plants, thousands of Indian scientists and other technical personnel are engaged in the activity of developing, producing and improving nuclear explosive devices. Dr. Abdul Kalam is one of the well known scientist engaged in the Indian effort working for the Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Indian nuclear research institutes at Trombay and various other places. the most important source of India for nuclear technology has been Russia, which is presently willing to offer nuclear technology to other nations like Iran. Pakistan is also not far behind, although its programme is much younger to India's. More than 3,000 Pakistani scientists were working on the "Pakistani bomb" programme, headed by Dr. Abdul Qader Khan, considered the father of Pakistani nuclear programme primarily being carried out in Khan Research Laboratories at Kahuta. France was one of the earliest helpers in Pakistani nuclear power programme but it later withdrew as the Pakistani initiative was known for the production of weapons. From then onwards, China served as willing to provide nuclear assistance to Pakistan under the guise of development assistance in energy sector of a friendly state.

Delivery problem: apart from the development and manufacture of nuclear explosive devices, there stands th problem of delivering them. It is noteworthy that a manned bomber in world War II delivered the first atomic weapon ever employed in war. The vulnerability of manned aircraft to deliver even conventional weapons had been realized even in that time; thousands of Allied bombers were destroyed and prevented from reaching their targets by German air defenses. The revolutionary innovation of the first ballistic missile, the V2 in Nazi Germany by the brilliant inventor Werner Von Braun was a major breakthrough in the weapon delivery technology. Barun moved to the US and helped develop US ballistic missiles while the Russians for their own programme abducted other colleagues of Braun. This is the story behind the development of long-range weapon delivery.

In our regional context, both Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapon developments are being complemented by an enormous expenditure of money and time into the development of delivery system. Both these powers now realize that ballistic missiles are are the only sure means to strike their adversary with impunity. Note that there, yet, isn't an effective counter-ballistic missile system in the world. India has tested the 2,500 km range Agni Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) and has deployed shorter range Prithvi (200 km range) Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM). The main Pakistani ballistic missile system is the Ghauri (1,500-2,500 km range) IRBM suspected to be based on North Korean technology. Also, Pakistan has purchased from China, M-11 series (300-600 km) SRBMs, named locally as Shaheen series. pakistan also has shorter Hatf series ballistic missiles apparently developed indigenously. However, both countries are dependent on on technology from such states as China, North Korea and and to some extent Russia, despite the latter's express denial. The US and its Western allies carefully control the dual use technologies, those that can be used in production of nuclear weapons in its exports to the third world. Therefore, it is unrealistic to expect India to channelize its dramatic growth in IT industries into improving its nuclear weapons technology. Such an effort could only result in hampering its future imports of emerging technologies by further tightening of the export control regime of Western countries.

Despite, the array of ballistic missiles being developed by the two South Asian rivals, few of them have been operational. This means that the air forces of the respective nations will have to employ their existing strike aircraft to deliver nuclear weapons for the interim period until the successful development and deployment of the virtually unstoppable ballistic missiles. there also remains the challenge for both countries to develop workable command and control systems for these weapons of mass destruction along with the question who has the trigger and which side will dare to use these awesome weapons first in case of an armed conflcit between the two.

Myth of Deterrence: The Indian and Pakistani leaders and policy makers might view the addition of nuclear weapons into enhancing their national military power and prestige, this has totally failed to avert armed conflict, thus, failing in maintaining deterrence, the idea of peace which exists due to fear of mutual nuclear exchange. The Kargil War is the graphic example, where the formula of nuclear deterrence, which worked for Russia and US was buried/burnt with the dead bodies of those who fell there.

The cost in terms of money, manpower and time is in such massive proportions that these alone can provide enormously to the deprived of both countries; billions upon billions are being are poured into the making of the tools of future holocaust, only waiting for the time when one of the sides lose its rationality. The religious fervor in the rhetoric and somewhat in policy of both nations serves as a potent spice for the impending heightening of a potential crisis which can easily spill into a disaster of magnanimous proportion. Imagine the consequence to Nepal, if Calcutta docks are damaged beyond repair by a nuclear strike.
THE END

Notes:-Credit goes to www.fas.org, Jane's, Newsweek, and various other news agencies. This analysis earned me an opportunity to write a dissertation on this subject for Army majors who wanted to attend US Army Command and Staff College, Fort Leavenworth. Ia sked for Rs 10,000 but they failed to produce the remuneration. I can produce this into a new book given ample research opportunity. My masters thesis can be based on this touchy but a significant issue of South Asian security. ASEAN can also be affected if sea routes to Persian Gulf is intercepted by Indo-Pak naval confrontation. japan's oil supply might need escort from Japanese navy resulting in breaking Japan's 2000 nautical mile limit imposed after WWII. US Navy might be asked to separate warring Indo-Pak ships ala 1971. The SCO naval force might overtake US Navy in sea superiority in the Indian ocean. this can result in mitigation of ANZUS treaty. Australian security wrests on this crucial pact (ref: Defense and Diplomacy issue with Australian Defense update and the issue of Jane's with news report of Admiral Dunleavy, USN saying he wanted "Russian Navy away from Pacific Islands and Oceania.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Army needs world-class weapons

-PRITAM S RANA

Some time back, media reports emanating from India stated that the Indian Army was interested to modernize the smallest tactical unit of its army-the platoon. It was reported that the Indian military wanted to enhance the effectiveness of its platoons in light of lack luster performance by units operating against insurgents in Kashmir. In a similar manner, platoon in Royal Nepalese Army also ought to be equipped and organized so it can prevail and outperform opposing forces.
Current RNA infantry battalions who have about nine unwieldy and large rifle platoons. Size must be immediately cut down so valuable manpower can be transferred to create new units. RNA should get out of its traditional thinking style that numbers alone will allow it to prevail in future combat operations. Instead it is firepower and maneuver, which will be the deciding factors.

Though new weapons are entering RNA service, platoons equipped with older Self Loading Rifles (SLR) and Light Machine Guns (LMG) are facing stiff competition from rebel units equipped with same and similar weapons. Both of these weapons are now obsolescent, unwieldy, heavy and need to be gradually replaced and passed to police units. Newest weapons entering RNA inventory namely the M-16A2 assault rifle and Minimi light machine guns are such weapons that they equip among others the US Army. German General Heinz Guderian (World War II) had advocated new tactics should accompany induction of new weapons. RNA should form robust units and subunits in accordance with the introduction of new weapons.

The M-16A2 rifle is the improved version of the venerable M-16A1, which was extensively used in the Vietnam War. The new rifle has automatic fire limiter which controls burst rate to three rounds. This not only economises ammunition but also improves accuracy. Sights on M-16A2 are superior to M-16A1 and the foregrip is also improved. Effective to 300m and weighing under 4kg fully loaded, the M-16A2 is far superior to the old SLR. Its only weak point compared to SLR is less maximum effective range and less armor penetration and anti-material capability. The 5.56mm bullet of the M-16A2 is effective against unprotected personnel targets; it is less effective against vehicles when compared to the 7.62mm round of the SLR.

The Minimi light machine gun is a design of Fabrique National firm of Belgium. Known as M249 Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW) in US military service, the fully automatic weapon fires 5.56mm rounds (common to M-16A2 rifle) to up to 1000m. The excellent weapon uses a roller guided locking system which works smoothly and uncomplicated. Also this fine weapon can be fed with belt as well as M-16A2 rifle magazines simplifying logistics.

There is also need for additional weapons, which will give operational flexibility to small unit leaders. A missing link is grenade launcher. Having only hand grenades, current platoon soldiers are limited to a stone throw range. Hand grenades are extremely risky to even the side that uses them. To enable soldiers to throw grenades beyond that possible by muscle power, grenade launchers have to be purchased. Although a variety is available in the international market, the 40mm grenade launchers are more common. The one which is available to M-16 series of rifles is the M203 launcher developed by AAI Corporation, USA. This launcher attaches below the foregrip of the M-16A2 rifle having separate firing mechanism and trigger. Soldiers can project grenades up to 400m away using this weapon. Such a capability could enhance firepower of individual platoon who do not have to call mortar support for otherwise trivial targets.

The three rifle squads of the modern rifle platoon should be equipped with aforementioned weapons. There is, besides the above, a need of a 7.62mm machine gun, which can support the three rifle squads with long-range fire. This weapon should also be capable of dealing with lightly armored targets and thin skinned vehicles which may be immune to 5.56mm rounds of the M-16A2 rifle and Minimi machine gun of the rifle squads.

Another important weapon system which should constitute a modern platoon is a sniper team. Consisting of an observer/leader and the sniper himself this unit can be tasked for various harassing tasks against the enemy. Using stealth, sniper team can target opposition force leadership, harass other enemy ranks can wreak havoc among unsuspecting and undisciplined enemy.

Platoon leadership should be equipped with long range radios so the whole unit can operate in long-range surveillance mission deep inside enemy territory. Squad and team leaders also require hand held radios in order to coordinate with platoon leadership. Also, embarking and disembarking by helicopters should be norm for the new platoons. The quality of leadership should also reflect best of the Army. Only rigorously chosen leaders can command elite platoons.

Small unit tactics bear too much weight to be ignored easily. Battles are decided by decision made by junior leaders. Small units, platoons, should be equipped with best of equipments. Besides weapons, other equipments like image intensifying night sights, thermal cameras, improved ration packs and timely logistical support will result in success of future combat operations. The Army should look beyond the rebels; far deadlier threat could be international terrorists establishing bases in remote parts of the country with active rebel support. The RNA should at any cost improve its force design or else be hopelessly outclassed in the torrent of modern combat.

Posted on: 2004-04-19 03:56:51 (Server Time)
www.ekantipur.com


* I would like to give credit to Jane's, ARMY and www.fas.org and many other news resources and book bought at Ekta, Kathmandu and Mandala Book Point for whatever I know on Defense. I was not trained by US government. I used my own money to acquire this critical skill in order to qualify for national service.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Rana crest

http://www.houseofnames.com/fc.asp?sId=&s=Rana#Rana-Family-Crest-history

Diamond Rana's buch in Netzplatz

http://www.coasbooks.com/ap_b_diamond_j_rana_s.html

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"walter H. Diamond, Dorothy B. Diamond"

"water Resources Division, J V B Wells"

Diamond Rana

Bitte, allow me to use this material in my blog.
Ruprecht-Karls University Heidelberg

South Asia Institute

Department of Anthropology


[SAI Logo]


Research Projects Nepal





"Rana Reflect"

person in charge: Stefanie Lotter
project period: April 1998 - September 2003



Filming 'Basanti" by Diamond S. Rana in the role of king Biju SJB Rana


This study is a contribution to the field of elite studies, an underrepresented area that has gained increasing interest in anthropology with its recent gaze towards power reproduction as well as prestige and status. The Rana, who effectively ruled Nepal until fifty years ago, declined from being an effective elite, although aspects of their distinctness have survived.

This study does not narrate the history of the Rana but examines the present situation between reorientation, re-creation and nostalgia as the poles within eluding spheres of past glory. ‘Rana Reflect’ covers disperse material from a Rana theme park to the family goddess, but is clearly divided into three parts. The first part of the study covers, besides a discussion of the methodology, the dynasties trans-national association with modernity as a way of legitimisation. The second part is likewise concerned with the fusion of influences however it transfers the discussion into the individual, featuring the hybridisation of the Rana who identify with Hindu high caste culture as well as with western elite culture. Turning from the fusion of identity towards its mainly unconscious manifestation, the study turns further to the distinct but declining habitus of the Rana. The third part of the study draws further into the field of representation and conscious self-reflection presenting the Rana in faction and docudrama. The equally conscious but less public re-creation of a community at the Rana family temple, builds the final chapter of the study.

publications:

egraner IX/ 2003

Greta Muwa!

Pls berth in my heart.
Call: 5542810, 5546725, 5527406
Email: education@spinybabbler.org



PERSONALITIES in Nepalese Literature

Greta Rana
in conversation with Para Limbu, Chairperson, Spiny Babbler


Creations


Greta Rana’s reputation intimidates first-time visitors. She represents the woman of the sixties – fiercely independent, vocal, and professional – she voices strong views distinctly, fearlessly, and powerfully. She is a writer who is socially conscious of other people’s sufferings and advocates for human rights through her own work.

Her passion for literature is inherent. By the time she was seven, she had already seen and was familiar with some of Shakespeare’s plays and fell in love as a child with the greatest dramatist the world has ever known. For her, no pre-twentieth century author has evoked as much appreciation in her as Shakespeare has.

Through Greta Rana, literature gains a broader meaning and perspective. It becomes the very essence of our existence without which we would have no history. Through her, literature is seen in its most dramatic form. It is alive, expanding, bringing forth ideas through our most prized possession – the mind. Literature has been and will be for Greta Rana and us, a medium through which we gain a continuous insight into the human psyche and its development.

She begins: “I was born during the middle of the Second War World in West Yorkshire, England. My mother, a schoolteacher, had to teach during the war so, when I was two years old, I was sent to the school where she taught. I remember being in a classroom with children two to three years older than me. I was given a book of Mother Goose’s nursery rhymes. Not knowing what to do with it I scribbled on it and the teacher got annoyed. My mother decided to teach me how to read as quickly as possible.”

Greta’s mother used to read out Shakespeare plays to the four children and they would stay until two or three o’ clock in the morning listening to their father’s stories. “My favorite books of that time were Winne the Pooh, Alice in Wonderland, and the Song of Hiawatha. When I am daydreaming sometimes, I can still hear my father saying, ‘by the shores of Gichigumi, by the big sea shining water.’ The thing that always impressed me was the phrase ‘daughter of the moon’, which was the name of Hiawatha’s grandmother, Nokomis. I always wanted to be a daughter of the moon.

“I also enjoyed reading Elizabeth Goudge, who wrote what today would probably be called science fantasy. And I loved Billy Bunter, I thought he was hilarious. Whenever I came across a word I didn’t understand I would ask my mother, ‘Mum, what does this word mean?’ She used to say, ‘You have a dictionary, look it up.’ The only time she intervened was when we couldn’t understand the dictionary! Quite early on, I started reading authors like George Eliot, Sir Walter Scott, Lord Tennyson. Today I see old copies of my books when I go home – Ivanhoe, The Mill On the Floss – among others."

Greta’s strong love of literature reflects a childhood upbringing well grounded in the arts. Her parents often involved their four children in literary and artistic pursuits. “I remember very distinctly my parents leading us like ducks. We would follow them, going around endless numbers of museums, art galleries, and historical places in Britain. We were young and felt left out to see other children running around and enjoying popular music and all kinds of other things. When I was small, people still had to buy food with ration coupons. We didn’t have fancy clothes and used to think why we couldn’t have the fancy cheap clothes that first came in. My mother always believed it best to have one good thing than a lot of low quality things. Afterwards when we became older and my mother died, I came to Nepal about this time, I remember sitting and thinking what a gift my parents had given us. They had, when times were hard and money was scarce in postwar Britain, saved up to take us to see all those wonderful things.

“Under the main street of my town, there are some of the most complete Viking remains in the whole of England. It’s just that the town corporation never had the money to reconstruct them. There’s a huge Roman bath just down one of the streets. When my father was a county councilor, he took me to Wakefield and showed me what they had recovered of the Viking remains. There were bins and bins of Viking jewelry – the most amazing treasure haul you have ever seen in your life. All these legends of the Vikings and Romans and everything we grew up with – these are all the things I suppose that influence you as a writer.

“Throughout my schooling, my teachers were encouraging. I remember a composition I wrote when I was in class four. The teacher announced, ‘I’m going to read out the best story written.’ She started reading and it was my story. She said, ‘I’m not going to give you the name of this person, but all I have to say is that this person should write and go on writing. In high school, I had an English teacher who had been a Cambridge Don. He really believed in my work. Until he died five years ago, I always sent him special poems – things I thought were not bad – he would write back to me and say, ‘keep going, you’re getting there. I know you’ll get there.’

“I was offered a scholarship when I was seventeen years old to study drama at RADA (Royal Academy of Dramatic Art) and my mother said, ‘Oh that’s ridiculous, you have to be good looking to be an actress.’ I remember the look of disbelief on my headmaster’s face. In retrospect, I realized that she was really frightened for me because she felt that, although as kids we were intellectually driven, we were naïve in many ways. She felt that drama school would be unlike university – much freer and that I would go adrift. She feared for me and thought I was a little bit too soft. She used to say, ‘You’re such a fool. If you’re not careful you’ll let people walk all over you.’ Afterwards I did not accept the scholarship. But acting was and is still a very intense passion of mine. When I see people who can act and act well, it gives me a big lift. I think that person has something and can make the writer’s work come alive.

"I went to the University of Manchester, read English language and literature at the Bachelor’s level and did a post graduate in criminology/social psychology. I worked with juvenile delinquents as a protection worker in Canada for five years and, in 1970, I became the director of Social Services at St. Joseph’s Hospital. I was twenty-seven or twenty-eight years old. All this time, I was still writing poetry. Then I and my husband, Madukar Shumshere, came to Nepal in 1971. His mother became ill and she wanted him back. Before coming to Nepal, he said, ‘All you have to do in Nepal is just sit down and write. But that didn’t happen.’

“All I knew about Nepal was Mt. Everest and the Gurkhas. There weren’t a lot of publications about Nepal in those days. It was a tremendous leap of faith I think to come to Nepal. You have to understand that there was a lot of adjusting. I went to work for Gorkha Travels and got the cultural shock of my life – a salary of Rs. 300! The first thing about Nepal, which I found very strange, was this one-party democratic system. That struck me as a little odd because in a one-party system where can your checks and balances come from? I also found this absolute deception, this avoidance of telling the truth to the powers hard to take. Basically, I suppose, when you come from a monarchical tradition, and I’m not talking about the monarchies of this day in Britain, you wonder how heads of state know what is going on unless people tell the truth. One of my favorite historical characters is Queen Elizabeth the First. In 1558, she couldn’t get a housekeeping budget unless the Commons of the British government of the day voted for it. Occasionally she’d put them in the tower for a couple of weeks if she couldn’t get the decision through. She was a person who had to have the love and approval of the people that she ruled.

“I continued writing poetry then I got interested in prose. In 1973, Bharat Koirala of The Rising Nepal asked me to write a feature page, which I did for 14 years until they finally discontinued it. There was supposed to be no censorship, but everyone knew there was. Your article would come out and one paragraph would go on to another paragraph that wasn’t leading on logically, so you had to write in a kind of code, which was not hard to do in English because people were not really too converse with the more obscure words.

“In 1982, I became the features editor of a weekly newspaper called Valley News and Views. Keshab Shumshere, the editor, was my husband’s first cousin. His sister asked me to help him establish the newspaper. I wrote features under different pen names. I was Sanya, the Wanderer, and used to write about culture and tourism. Then I was Brutus and used to write about political things.

“The license of Valley News and Views was confiscated in 1986. Keshab Shumshere was arrested for printing an article on the nefarious dealings of people in government and involvement with the Gurkha National Liberation Front. I don’t know what he wrote exactly, I was in England, but I knew he had been working on it for a long time. He told me he had his four independent objective sources and was ready for publication; however, he would not reveal them. I suggested to him that when I returned, we’d go through it together and see how it could be written so that it would not be so inflammatory. But I think he was very determined and published it. The newspaper was closed down and the publisher took off to Germany. Eventually we didn’t get the license back, but it was a good paper. I’d dearly love to have the license back. There’s a lot that needs changing in journalism. I think a lot of young people can bring about changes, but they can’t if they don’t have a newspaper.”

Greta’s interest in writing a book on the Ranas developed only after she became involved in the translation of Wake of the White Tiger. “My father-in-law died in 1982. Before passing away, Diamond Shumshere Rana, a prominent novelist in Nepal, came to see him and asked him if I would translate Seto Bagh. He was a cousin of my father-in-law.

“It took me two years to translate the book. In those days I used to study Nepali two hours a day – reading and writing, so my Nepali was much better than it is today. I offered Diamond Shumshere an interpretation and a word for word translation. He selected the interpretation.

“I think Seto Bagh did very well, 7,000 to 10,000 copies were published, which at that time, I thought, was very optimistic because if you look at the best selling list of English books of people like Salman Rushdie, apart from the Satanic Verses which sold an awful lot simply because of the fatwa, if you look at say The Moor’s Last Sigh selected from the bestsellers’ list, probably 2,000 hard copies were sold. It’s only if you ever get into a paperback that you get a million copies sold. Because once you’re in the mass market, you’re sold in the supermarkets, the airports sell it, and people will buy anything in supermarkets and airports.

“Nepal is not a paperback world. So if you sold 10, 000 copies over a period of sixteen years, I think you’ve done very well. You also have to accept that the media makes people and personalities, which is one of the problems being in Nepal if you are an English writer. You miss out on all that the media can do for yourself and your community of writers.

“It was only after I translated Seto Bagh that I realized that if I didn’t bring my focus back to my own language – my mother tongue and my own writing – I would never be able to add something of value to the literature of the English speaking people. It is my lifelong dream. I realized that if I concentrated on another language, even if it is French, which is my second language, I would never achieve that ever.

“The one thing that intrigued me about Seto Bagh is the character of Jung Bahadur. Nobody knew much about his personality. You read about all the Ranas and there are very few clues about what they were like as people. They were what we’d call in English, two dimensional. There’s the legend, there’s the person, there’s the things that they did – historical facts or fiction. Jung Bahadur Rana had 104 years influence on this country and novelists make him sound as if he was ‘Mr. Flapjack’.


“The interesting thing about Jung, if you read the historical archives, is that he seems to have had a lot of women. Women probably knew more about him than men. You have a couple of occasions in which there were plots against him and it was women who helped him all the time. He abolished sati and yet so many of his wives committed sati. Did they think they’d be massacred after his death? Did Jung murder that one, did he murder this one? If he did then what were his motives? What was he thinking? Napoleon believed that it was his destiny to become what he was. ‘Moi, je suis le destin (I, I am destiny),’ he said. Is that how Jung felt? Nobody knows, nobody cares. Lots of parts are missing, like the missing parts of a jigsaw puzzle.

“When you write about anyone, you have to have a sense of personality. It is this trait that distinguishes Shakespeare from all other playwrights of his era and makes him brilliant. He invented, if you like, human psychology – centuries before Sigmund Freud. The idea that the human being has a continuous conversation with itself, maybe it is a little bit eccentric to think of yourself as it, there’s me as I’m talking to you and I’m consciously talking to you, and there’s me as I talk to myself and what’s inside me, and the awareness of that and the awareness of the conflict between the outside and the rationalization of the human psyche and the effects it has on the personality, and how you react to others or the reactions of others to you. If you look at Hamlet, the Prince of Denmark, or Macbeth, you begin to see what he was doing. He must have been a great observer of the human personality.”

With over four decades of writing experience, Greta, today, is not satisfied. At first, she never thought of herself as anything other than a poet or a short story writer. However, one of the things she hadn’t foreseen about her poetry was her audience. She says, “My poetry is difficult for people who haven’t grown up in the English language, whereas people who have would say, ‘Hi! I see that’, it falls flat on others.”

Greta wrote her first novel in Nepal. She feels that the first two she wrote were rubbish. One was called Nothing Greener, the other Distant Hills. She felt that if she looked at them in terms of literary merit, they were just yarns. But she wrote a third one in a month based on a dream she had had. It was called Right As It Is and she remembers, when she finished it thinking that that’s where she had to go in terms of novel writing. She felt she could write prose and not only poetry.

“In 1980, I started working on a book called A Place Beneath the Pipal Tree. It’s been accepted for publication twice. The first time, however, the company was taken over by a text book firm. Eventually my agent who is an agent for Mary Wellesley, one of Britain’s biggest selling authors, read the book and sent me an astounding letter that I’ve kept. The book was put on auction and Harper and Collins bid for it. Later on, one of their editors thought that, because it didn’t have an English heroine, it might not sell, which is a strange idea. It has two chapters about Tibet and one of my characters is a Tibetan. I think Harper and Collins might have backed out because, at that time, Rupert Murdoch was going into critical business negotiations with China. I didn’t see it then until all the books about Hong Kong came up and they sent them back too. Who knows? Whoever knows with publishers? What happened in the mean time is that a German publisher asked for the first foreign language publishing rights. So I had to decide whether I would let my book be published first in another language, which is German. I did and it should come out some time this year.

“I’ve got another book called Ghosts in the Bamboo, which is a satire. It’s about a menopausal woman who thinks she hears voices in the bamboo, the voices of her grandmother and mother. It’s a sort of a story within a story. You have to decide in the end whether she murdered her husband or not. It’s almost serious fiction, but funny. It’s literally full of women and the conversations they have with their psyches and each other. I’ll have to try and find a publisher for it.”

Although Greta has found enjoyment in prose, she feels her first love will always be poetry. She says, “Poetry is what I call the highest excellence. Sometimes I publish it in volumes, sometimes in other periodicals in America and Britain.” She feels there is a marked difference between poetry and prose. She explains: “In prose you feel that you can learn a formula, but with poetry I don’t think so. I know in America you have poetry workshops and things like that, they’re probably useful. However, I don’t believe that the poet is particularly the progenitor (if you like) of the poem. I think the inspiration has to come through you. There are lots of theories about it. Maybe it is some kind of chemical problem that poets have and others don’t have, maybe some kind of process in the brain. I don’t think you can write poetry alone, its more like earthing through the electricity cable – it has to come to you. You don’t go to it. With prose, you can spin your own fantasy, create your own story. You can observe human behavior and write. You can look at the trees and describe them. This is a proactive process your brain is going through. But as far as poetry is concerned you are the vehicle. You have to feel that at least. Emily Dickinson asked her mentor, ‘Does my poetry live?’ That’s what I’m talking about.” And that is why Greta gets more satisfaction from poetry. Once her poetry comes out, it’s like a rush of relief.

She has considered writing plays but feels she needs somebody to write them with her. Someone who actively acts all the time and who can understand the logistics of acting and what it takes. Someone who knows what is possible in drama and what isn’t. She says, “I’ve read a lot of plays by people just trying to write a play and it doesn’t come off. The thing which is missing is the actor, the dramatist personality, something which Shakespeare had.”

Greta’s involvement in PEN Nepal started from 1986 when she and a group of writers tried to establish a branch. She was the secretary and as they come in contact with more and more writers in PEN, the organization asked them to be on the Writers in Prison Committee. In 1990, the new Prime Minister, Mr. K.P. Bhattarai, registered PEN Nepal. From 1994 to 1996, she became the chair of the International Women Writers’ Committee. Last year, she was requested to stand as a member on the new international executive committee of International PEN. She received a nomination but withdrew because she decided she wanted to concentrate on PEN Nepal.

“Organizations like PEN help to fight censorship. I feel that if you censor, you invite rebellion. The thing is if you try and repress those parts of freedom you find distasteful, you remove from people their most coveted right as human beings – security. You can’t ever do that, because censorship means insecurity, it means you’re not safe, you can’t have access to the information that you need to keep yourself, your family, and everybody safe. And that is the importance of literature. Literature gives you a clue about that conversation humanity has with its internal spirit and externally with others. It gives you a perspective of the times in which we live. It becomes an important part of human history. Without literature you lose ideas and without ideas there’s no point in being human beings.”



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On using the army against the Maoists

The Kathmandu Post, Saturday, May 20, 2000 (published on page 4)
-Pritam S Rana
The "People's War" campaign initiated by the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Mao) is entering its fifth year with the consequent loss of more than 1400 lives and property damages. Maoist leaders and their supporters aim to do away with the present system of government and this has appealed to some poor, mainly illiterate youth who have little opportunities in society. Others support it to see radical change advocated by the Maoists bring about a change from the general lack of progress and development in their remote districts despite the promises of mainstream politicians since the restoration of democracy ten years ago. The Maoists, since 1996, have continued their violent activities aimed against the administration attacking government officials, the police and party workers of the mainstream political parties. Meanwhile, the government has responded with force namely the deployment of additional police personnel and resources to the affected regions such as Rolpa, Rukum and Jajarkot in western Nepal.

It is ordinary civilians caught in the crossfire between the guerrillas and the police who have suffered most. Despite news of talks between the government representatives and Maoists, peaceful resolution of this conflict seems to be very remote.

In their effort to curb the terrorist activities of Maoist guerrillas, the police have suffered heavy casualties. Statistics show their loss per engagement is at par with police or in some cases they suffer greater casualties than the losses suffered by Maoists. This shows that the government is losing in the battleground. Moreover, the police have failed to destroy the guerrilla infrastructure, alienate guerrillas from the local population and have instead engaged in activities to intimidate ordinary citizens and thus served to increase people's sympathy to the cause of the Maoists.

It appears it is the right time for the government to mobilize selected units of the Royal Nepalese Army for counter-insurgency operations against Maoists. The Army has better weapons, organization, infrastructure and logistical support in order to counter the increasingly better-armed guerrillas.

The current police units engaged in operations against the Maoists have inadequate arms to fight the guerrillas. The only police rifle in use is the Lee Enfield .303 that is more than a hundred years old in design, bolt action and slow to fire. There is no weapons besides this apart from pistols and some shotguns. The Army has semi-automatic rifles and a machine gun per section (a group of about ten soldiers). Besides these, each section has a small mortar to propel bombs several hundred meters even behind hills and targets. An army battalion has heavier weapons like mortars to give indirect fire support and it can also bring in artillery and helicopters armed with machine guns and rockets for heavier fire support. Army helicopters can provide logistical support (ammunition, food and other supplies including timely evacuation of the wounded) into terrain inaccessible to vehicles and even when there is no foot trail. Presently, the Nepalese police lacking helicopters of their own are hiring private airlines helicopter at very high costs sharply increasing the already overstretched police budget. Only some time back, Maoist cadres captured a parked helicopter used by the police highlighting the lack of security in relying on civilian equipment.

Organized and trained to fight, the army will be far more effective and even cost effective in fighting the poorly and lightly armed Maoist guerrillas who presently rely on raw recruits armed with stolen police rifles and muzzle loading home made arms. Many army personnel have already some experience in the working of irregular forces while on their peacekeeping duties in Lebanon and elsewhere. The quality and caliber of the leaders of the Army, who have been trained by countries with long experience in counter-insurgency and irregular warfare like USA and Israel, is very high. These professionals are expected to create and maintain an effective intelligence gathering organization within their command (with police assistance) in order to map out Maoist guerrilla tactics, their organization including their leadership, and their whereabouts in order to assist operations to assist them. Besides, the involvement of the Army will give it experience in actual combat, thus it itself will learn many valuable lessons which it can apply in future engagement with enemies both foreign and domestic. It will also silence critics who point out that the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) has little to do and is only a ceremonial organization eating a big share of the nation's meager budget allocations.

It is imperative that the government should decide to deploy troops quickly as possible in order to rid Nepal of insurgency and terrorism. Any delays will only help the Maoists to organize, seek support both within and outside of Nepal, and equip itself with arm. Indecision will mean more casualties for police and innocent civilians. One more lesson to be learned is that if allowed to prosper, guerrilla groups tend to ally themselves with other criminal activities like the international narcotics trade in order to generate cash. This is already the case in Latin American countries like Colombia where such "rich" guerrillas are immune to government control.

The decision to use the Army will certainly be unpopular in some quarters. Critics' fear that increasing the role of the Army in the effort to fight insurgency will certainly will naturally give them more power and more say in the policy of the government. They fear such a rise in role and status might elevate the Army giving it political clout and make them the primary arbiter of power in the nation. For this they can cite examples like Chile and Myanmar where the government was overthrown by the army which established itself as the permanent ruler. We cannot deny that such feelings may already have hatched among some Nepalese politicians, especially leftist leaders who usually see the military as a rightist force. It is well known that the military in Nepal is the most loyal of the monarchist groups. This has to do with the tradition and time of the founders of Nepal, all kings, and it is to them and the country to whom the soldiers swear allegiance. However, there are means to check the seizure of power of by the Army and such fears are unfounded.

Another school of criticism might argue that the employment of the armed forces to quell guerrillas is bound to failure citing historical lessons. They can point out to the lost cause of the United States in Vietnam and the failure of the Sri Lankan Army to quell the Tamil separatists. To answer these compelling questions we have to look at the facts of those past and present conflicts. In Vietnam, the United States attempted to defend South Vietnam, a friendly state from the North Vietnamese Army and their southern proxies, primarily the National Liberation Front or Viet Cong guerrillas. The Viet Cong guerrillas, solidly backed and reinforced by the North Vietnamese Army had a clear cut aim of causing maximum casualties on the Americans to force them to leave in order to unite South Vietnam into a communist led North Vietnam. Heavily armed and led by North Vietnamese officers, the Viet Cong although losing to Americans in battlefield, achieved their aim of frustrating American public opinion by mounting American casualties and forcing them to leave Vietnam. The Maoists in Nepal are neither as heavily armed and well led as the Viet Cong nor directly aided by any of the neighboring nations in our case India and China. Besides, the CPN-Mao has no clear cut strategic aim despite their rhetoric of liberating the country of capitalists and colonialists.

Considering the case of Sri Lanka, the Nepalese Maoist crisis has little parallel as the war there is of ethnic nature. The Sri Lankan Army is fighting to regain territories controlled by Tamil separatist guerrillas, mainly the LTTE. The guerrillas who want a separate Tamil state claim they are fighting against racism by the predominant Sinhalese ethnic group against the minority Tamils. Due to some legitimacy in their claim, the Tamil separatists enjoy support of Tamil population both in Sri Lanka and abroad. From the latter group of Tamil well wishers, the separatists receive financial support to buy weapons and supplies in the international market.

Both the Viet Cong in Vietnam and the LTTE in Sri Lanka were/are known to create parallel administration in the territories they controlled from which they taxed the local population and even offered legal and other functions at par with the government administration which they replaced. It is imperative, that His Majesty's Government learn from these experiences of other countries. It should at all cost contain the Maoist guerrillas to deny it access to modern arms and it should detect and decapitate any attempted creation of a parallel guerrilla administration or shadow government.

One of the most effective means to counter guerrilla insurgency is to deny the guerrillas the refuge and support of local population. This cannot be achieved by threatening the civil populace, as this will further undermine the image of the government in people's eyes. Development support in the form of improved health care, schools, and bridges as well as employment of the uneducated youth, and a genuine environment of trust between the people of the affected area and the government with other political parties acting as catalyst is the only real solution to this lingering problem, a black blob in the face of our peaceful nation.

Finally, the government, realizing its failure to deal with the Maoists with the existing police resources, has announced the formation of a new paramilitary police force of strength of more than 15,000 personnel. The force, initially drawing personnel from the police and the Army on equal ratio, will have advanced weapons and will have one brigade (of about 3,000 strong) in each of the five development regions of Nepal. The government will spend more than a billion rupees to raise and equip this force.

The government's decision appears to have been taken in haste and is fundamentally unsound. Instead of spending this large amount of money on a new and inexperienced force, the money could have been properly utilized in training, equipping, and preparing existing brigades of the Royal Nepalese Army for counter-insurgency operation. Improved combat training devices like laser based simulators can be bought with this money and even private consultants, experts with experience of guerrilla warfare, can be hired for competent advice. Far less money will be spent if this alternative is considered. Do we really have money to waste on a new, untried, untrained and a theoretical force? It takes years to train even a single battalion (800 strong) and the government wants to train five brigades each with three battalions! In what time? The people would have long died of hunger before the mill removes the husks. The government needs sound decision and foresight in its planning.

Despite its mistakes in the past the government should learn and act fast. An insecure environment will tarnish the image of of this country as a safe and peaceful place and will affect our tourism, a crucial revenue generating sector of our national economy. A military solution is not always the best to quell dissent. But, when law and order is to be maintained and there is no other way, it is the only situation.
THE END