Dragon Fury

A limited force takeover of Taiwan by Beijing

The Republic of China and its political community had to contend a strong movement - The Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Tse Tung backed by Russia, communist Americans and other Third World leaders. In 1911, Sun Yatsen's Nationalist Republican movement deposed the ancient Manchu rulers after the country became extremely poor and ineffective. The country's major ports and trade were controlled by Europeans and Americans. From early 1930s Imperial Japan also asserted control over vast Chinese market and occupied with its land forces. The Nationalists and the Communists both fielded propaganda cadres and field armies. The Russians also helped the nationalists with aviation units and pilots according to Russian military newspapers available in Nepal. It is sold in Bajeko Pasal in Biratnagar, Eastern Nepal. These pilots conducted bombing missions against the Imperial Japanese positions inside China in apparently a broader effort to follow Russia's policy of containing Japanese power in Siberia, Sakhalin, Mongolia and Northwest China. Communist Chinese propaganda also spoke of Hitler's help to Nationalist forces in form of possibly monetary aid or technicians or aircraft and tanks and probably military experts like General Liman von Sanders who went to Turkey to counter Russian advances against Turkey's eastern provinces.

The Nationalists were also backed by Americans who sent their able General Stillwell who was quartered in Kunming, South China according to Robert Leckie's Delivered from Evil. Initially the Chinese Kuomintang (Nationalists) and Chinese communists fought among each other but briefly were diverted to fight the foreign Japanese invaders. After regular defeats at the hands of Japanese, US pilots under General Stillwell's orders organized the American Volunteers Group or the Flying Tigers under Colonel Claire Chennault. These valiant men attacked Japan's aviation and military logistics. Interestingly, these men wore jackets marked with the Nationalist flag, the red rectangle with blue corner with the white sun. Accompanying the Chinese flag were Cantonese characters asking peasants to save these pilots and spare them from Japanese retribution. To my chagrin, my father had a Hino Maru riddled with bulletholes, a family memento acquired by some veterans.

The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in Deecmber 7, 1941, in a bid to isolate US trade with China and assert total control of the Pacific. After surprising US naval units and incapacitating US Pacific Fleet, the Imperial Japanese forces quickly landed troops in Pacific theater ranging from Singapore, Siam, South Pacific in addition to the already occupied China. The Japanese also had a broader aim of invading and controlling Australia from European control.

Japan's European Axis allies Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy also declared war against US which was in my opinion a disastrous move by the German government. Germany should have left England alone and focused on Halsford Mackinder's lectures and moved swiftly to isolate communist control of Russia and the vast resources in Central Asia. Hitler's lack of foresight led to Germany's defeat in Africa despite the brilliant leadership of General Erwin Eugen Johannes Rommel. Also his failure to convince Churchill as he persuaded Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain that Germany's only threat was in the East and Germany could compete favorably with France and the British Empire in a freer hostilities free free trade in Africa and Latin America. Such was Germany's fate then.

The US became hopelessly engaged in European crusade against Germany and failed to help Germany to rescue the backward Russian people from Eurocentrism and enlightenment. Germany could have better managed Russia's natural resources and helped Russian people from throwing away the yoke of forced collectivization and godless anti-individual communism. Besides, Stalin was building a strong army - millions of men with tanks and airplanes to threaten Eastern Europe. His eventual goal was to spread communism throughout Europe and the Third World. Lenin had already produced a thesis severely criticising Euopean presence and supposed exploitation and control of Africa and Latin America by Europeans. Therefore it was natural for Germany to send its forces eastward to contain this Marxist threat.

But the United States government under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt continued warfare against Axis forces. Sending war materials to England created the Battle of the Atlantic, a fearsome struggle of Allied ships (British, Canadian and US) against Germany's vaunted U-Boats. German Admirals Erich Raeder and Karl 'Papa' Doenitz attempted to check US resupply of England and Russia in the high Atlantic. But the British forces prevailed and defeated Germany's pocketbatleship force as well as the U-Boats after a long and costly struggle. Allied invasion of Normany on June 6, 1944 diverted German troops from the Eastern Front leading to the collapse of German resistance against Russian advance. As Germany surrendered and Japanese were contained in the Pacific, anti-democratic communist forces became stronger. After the agreement to divide Germany into Allied zones, the Russians stamped out German culture in Eastern Europe. Ethnic Germans were kicked out of traditional German cities like Koenigsberg and other Polish towns like Danzig (renamed Gdansk by the victorious Russians and Poles). Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Churchill, descended upon Europe.

The Truman administration (Roosevelt died while in office) was forced to take Hobson's choice of either invading Japanese home islands or to drop newly developed atomic weapons to force the reluctant Japanese for unconditional surrender. The Army under General Douglas McArthur had already produced plans for Operation Olympic - the invasion of Kyushu, the southernmost Japanese home island. A more audacious albeit highly risky plan was the Operation Coronet, the invasion of Honshu island near Tokyo, the capital city. According to a Newsweek report Operation Coronet was likely to produce a million casualties for US servicemen. Therefore to mitigate casualties and to quell calls by servicemen to return home after a long and bloody armed conflict, Truman decided to use the untried weapons - Little Boy and Fat Man - against Hiroshima and Nagasaki resulting in over 200,000 Japanese casualties plus the radiation and cancer for many generations of Japanese city residents. But what could have he done? Could he ask one million US soldiers to die in vain effort to control a Samurai state? Tibbets just did what he was ordered to.

After Japan's unconditional surrender, communist Chinese forces swiftly asserted control of mainland China and defeated the Nationalists in one after another battles. The Nationalists retreated to Formosa with a million supporters while Mao Tse Tung declared victory and established a People's Republic, a communist dictatorship, in 1949.

The Taiwanese had to fear China's eventual invasion of Taiwan (Formosa) and they valiantly held small islands of Quemoy and Matsu despite artillery raids and constant loudspeaker propaganda. China has acquired vast quantity of arms from Russia and produces many aircraft and tanks of mainly Russian design without license in its state arsenal factories. It has the world's largest standing army while its military potentail remains largest due to its vast population of one billion and huge industrial capacity. China has strategic steel industry theoretically giving it expertise to produce ships as large as wartime Japan's massive battleship sisters Shinano, Yamato and Musashi. The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has acquired a Varyag (Kuznetsov class) carrier from Russia to expand its blue water capability. In addition its Jianghu frigates, Luhu destroyers and other fleet escorts have been available to other interested buyers from Southeast Asia.

The author would like to describe a scenario in which the PLAN equipped with Russian designed Sovremenny class destroyers (two were delivered in December 1999 and November 2000, while the other two were delivered in December 2005 and September 2006 according to www.naval-technology.com) armed with supersonic cruise Surface to surface missiles (SSMs) can support an amphibious operation to forcibly take control of Taiwan. At a time when Taiwan's traditional security guarantor the United States is already overtaxed with farflung contingencies and a global economic crisis, the Chinese generals and admirals Admiral Liu Huajing and Chi Haotian can plan a quick takeover of Taiwan with a principle of economy of force as well as their indigenous Sun Tzu's Art of War. A sea incident in pirate infested Molucca Straits against China's trade ships by US Navy boarding for suspected arms material to Third World rogue states or a standoff between Taiwanese Navy and PLAN vessels in Spratlys and Paracels disputed islands can easily falre up an already existing tensions to volcanic proportions. The Chinese military leaders can plan a swift conventional ballistic attack (nuclear weapons not preferred as Taiwan's infrastructure and population is to be saved) against Taiwan's Ministry of Defense and other defense facilities as well as political and military leaders like Dr. Lian Chen, former defense minister and Admiral Hau Peitsun by heliborne special forces. The Chinese J-11 (Su-27 copies) can swiftly establish offensive sweeps and BARCAP against Taiwan's F/A-18, F-16 and Mirage 2000-5 units. After sweeping the Taiwan's air force with sheer numbers (the same human wave Maoist tactic used successfully against infantry opponents) but backed by Ilyushin Il-76 Mainstay AWACS platform and a squadron of converted Boeing tankers acuired from Israel. Replicating Nazi takeover of Crete, the force majeure can quickly turn the tide of world opinion for a 'unification' on Beijing's terms.

The Taiwanese air force and navy units attempt massive resistance. Its air force strikes and disables a single Sovremenny destroyer Admiral Chu Teh and quickly orders an orderly withdrawal to Japan. Naval platforms also withdraw to Japan and the US. The Taiwanese diaspora is permanently lodged in San Francisco and Los Angeles planning for a comeback which is a far cry. The Third World quickly accepts Beijing's unification campaign while the US is unable to do anything for fear of provoking a nuclear exchange with Beijing's newly built fleet of rail mobile ICBMs. Also the president and the Pentagon cannot discount threat posed by China's SSBNs or in a limited scenario an unrestricted submarine warfare conducted by China's Mao class of SSNs. The threat posed by Chinese ocean going diesel boats in choke points like the Straits of Molucca cannot be discounted. And, recent threats by North Korea's missile test over Japanese airspace and UN's inability to tame the ambition of Pyongyang's unpredictable leadership and its reclusive leaders Kim Jong Il and his son recounts the volatility of the international system.

THE END.

-Pritam S Rana

Note:-This article lacks logos appeals of up to date statistics and is basically enthymematic. I recommend to interested parties to insert more objective tools and graphics to enhance this article into a professional piece on par with those produced by writers of Jane's and IACSP Journal. Much of the original information and name credit goes to Jane's Defense Weekly, apublication registered in Surrey, United Kingdom. I became a defense analyst reading their materials and the JDW magazine in 1990-91 period. The publication gave me rights to use their material with proper accredition. I remember a letter by editor Michael Howard, if the name is still correct in my memory.