Al Qaida draws US Navy into Hornet's Nest

-Pritam S Rana or Priam

The waters of Somalia is known haven for pirates, formerly Somali coastguard workers who are unemployed after the United Nations and Europeans failed to set up an orderly state in Somalia. These men have taken up law against neutral shipping and broken the Ten Commandment law of "Thou Shall nOt Steal and Kill", earning a lable of pirates. The same group are highly vulnerable to recruitment by Al Qaida. Al Qaida number two front man, Aiman Al Zawairi invoked the Salafists to send volunteers and fight US interests in Somalia. And US has engaged these terrorists since 2006 and is busy forming the African Command, a joint military command to police the restive continent of Africa from would be transnational terrorists and states that have a history of supporting terrorism.

The kidnapping of Captain Richard Philips and other crewmen of SS Maersk Alabama denotes the pirates are inspired by Al Qaida and seek hostilities with the United States. These same forces, the clans engaged in intercenine warfare among themselves, were active in kidnapping the crew of Saudi supertanker Sirius Star and its cargo of two million tons of crude oil. According to respected German magazine Der Spiegel, the merchandise was worth nearly $100 million in the world market. The pirates however did a commendable job in kidnapping Russian arms peddler MV Faina in September 25, 2008. This Africa bound ship was carrying a cargo of 33 T-72s , enough to arm an armored battalion. This powerful force of tanks was reportedly destined for Juba in Southern Sudan. It would probably have been used to conduct military operations against Darfur rebels by the Islamist Sudanese regime. Or worse, it could have ended in Al Qaida's undisclosed camps in Sudan to rehearse a possible combat with US XVIII Airborne Corps rapid reaction force or NATO's Allied Command Europe's Mobile Force or France's numerous contingents supporting various peacekkeeping and security forces throughout Africa.

When Indian naval forces including frigate INS Tabar (sourced from AP/Der Spiegel picture, issue Nr48, 24/11/08) conducted bombardment of these pirate forces, Al Qaida cells responded swiftly by conducting terrorist raids against Bombay areas of importance, chiefly frequented by American and Western tourists, including a rabbi. The signature attack which killed 173 and wounded 308 corresponded with Al Qaida's anti-Western, anti-Jewish footprint. This writer believes intuitively that there is a strong link between India's participation in NATO naval operations and the Bombay attacks.
These pirates have defied the world community and made a mockery of international trade. The dropping of $2 million dollars denote how vulnerable international oil trade is to blackmailing and terrorism. Greater danger looms ahead as US Navy is being drawn to combat these fierce clansmen who fear nothing. The men are professional killers and butchers. The whole idea of kidnapping US merchant mariners could be a ploy by Al Qaida to draw American ships into free fire zone and again use the same technique used to destroy US Navy destroyer USS Cole in 2000. Al Qaida leader Osama bin Laden was the main culprit, according to US magazines Newsweek.

Establishing a functioning state in Somalia is a titanic task given the enormous risk and costs involved in the invasion of the country plagued with intercenine clan warfare. Since Siad Barre's fall from power in 1991, the country has been rife for terrorist exploitation. Presence of anti-American forces under such fanatical clans like Mohammed Farah Aidid whose forces attacked UN forces and engaged US Army rangers in 1993. President George Herbert Walker Bush's policy to allow orderly distribution of food and restore order met with fierce clashes with Aidid's Habar Gadir militia. Possible infiltration by Arab Jihadis who trained local Somali fighters to shoot down US helicopters using rocket propelled grenades was artistically presented to public eye in Hollywood bluckbuster, 'Black Hawk Down'. But the sight of parading of US soldiers by the militia was unpalatable and revulsive to most Americans. It seems the mother of all battles began in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia's defense. However, the focus is in Horn of Africa. The big oil's footprint is clearly visible in the new Great War. And, Somalia's decay can partly be blamed on its bloody war with Ethiopia over the Ogaden region. The then Soviet Union and its Cuban communist proxy forces destroyed Somalia's military manpower and left the country dry of bright and able leaders.

Although US intelligence has bird's eye view of the world through its massive network of spy satellites, the terrorist forces are studying ways to circumvent US surveillance of hotspots through recruiting quality technical manpower. According to April 9 report on the Wall Street Journal by Mr Gorman, the Russians and Chinese hackers now have the capability to map US electrical grid ostensibly to shut it down in case of future armed conflict with the US and its NATO allies. If US grid can be mapped, it can be assumed that these foreign states now have the technical capability, resources and organization to map every US Internet based architecture and possibly disable it to through destructive virus program once US is militarily enaged with rogue states and hostile organizations. The scenario described in Dan Brown's Digital Fortress is now real as ever before.

Information and intelligence warfare has evolved radically in favor of hostile powers and transnational groups. Although the technology and its architecture is US built and controlled, foreign sofware engineers have mastered much and are capable of controlling information superhighway as exemplified by China's grip on access to Internet within its borders. Der Spiegel report further speaks of presence of spies among foreign expatriate laborers in Arab countries who use widely available Internet and sophisticated communication devices like satellite phones to report movement of cargo ships to terrorists and pirates abroad in places like the Horn of Africa.

Furthermore, piracy is rife also in other poorer states like the Straits of Malacca. Allied with such terrorist outfits as Khaddafi Janjalini's Abu Sayyaf terrorist outfit, the threat is tangible. Much of Japan's trade with Asia still passes through the straits and Singaporeean military although armed with latest US platforms cannot be everywhere to curtail carefully planned or massed terrorist operations by such groups seeking media exposure or hard cash. The depreciation of US and World economy further heightens threat to existing commerce. The author feels that US government should chose to delegate sea policing tasks to private security companies so as to lessen the burden on scarce budget resources. The private firms operation under international maritime law might be questionable. But latest incidents have denoted that private sea security firms are likely to be licensed by US maritime authorities. Eric Prince and his Blackwater has much potential to lucrative contracts in an insecure world infested by pirates and arms traffickers.

"The safe return of the captain is the top priority," AFP reporter Andre des Nesnera quoted Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Washington. Rogue state leaders and transnational terrorists know the weaknesses of current Obama led Democratic administration. Obama's lack of service record, low business confidence and his quarrels with US captains of industry is closely watched by foreign intelligence and diplomatic corps. North Korea's recent missile launch over Japan was most likely a test to check US resolve. The Democraic Party's utopian foreign policy objective of dialogue over realpolitik can easily be deduced by such states as weakness or a move to neo-isolationism. Venezuela is openly flouting Monroe doctrine and building up an arsenal of Russian arms. Cuba is still under grip of Raul Castro after ailing Castro gradually retires from power. Georgia is crushed and as the administration tries to release pressure on the military by withdrawing from Iraq and focusing on bin Laden in Afganistan, there looms a greater danger of a nuclear armed Iran. As US vacates Iraq, Iranian revolutionary Guards can pour into its ally, Syria's defense in large convoys of trucks to Diyar Awz Zor, a city attacked by Israeli forces in 2007. The Sipah e Basij e Pasdaran, a volunteer force of upto 15 year olds armed with latest Avtomat Kalashnikov AK-100s, Heckler and Koch G-3s and Austrain Steyr high powered sniper rifles can overwhelm Israel's defense line in the Golan. If we see 1973 again, the US Army Reserves and the National Guard will be called in to defend Israel, thanks to the powerful pro-Israel lobby in Washington. In such a scenario, the US$900 million earmarked for Palestinians can be channelled to purchase light arms, anti-tank missiles or even tanks and possibly light East European aircraft to attack Israeli and US military personnel in the war zones. It is notewrthy that even puny Lebanon has ordered MiG-29s from Russian arms manufacturers, making it risky for Israeli reconnaissance aircraft and drones from observing frontline positions near the Blue Line. The Offek satellites do work for now, but in a broader conflict, these can be knocked down by Russian and Chinese ground based laser or photon guns readily available for such client states as Iran and other would be SCO powers.

The Global War on Terror or the Third World War began in 1993 although 2001 is the 1939. To supply these forces, there exists a network of arms providers as exemplified by Faina's capture off Somalia. African dictators' insatiable appetite for arms is being fulfilled by Russian and Chinese arms manufacturers like Rosoberonexport and Norinco. In sharp contrast, US arms sales is regulated by Congress and the General Accounting Office (GAO). While US is overstretched; its military personnel pool engaged in difficult campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, China has launched a major diplomatic offensive involving trade and aid to the Third World. Its military has now joined United Nations so that they gain first hand experience in Third World. After teaching the world about Maoist guerilla strategy and becoming a nuclear power able to balance the United States nuclear arsenal with its strategic rocket forces, China is busy increasing its military spending by 17 percent according to Wall Street Journal news snippets. Its enormous one trillion two hundred billion trade surplus with the United States has enabled it spend a lot of its money on R&D as well as industral and ther forms of espionage by paying qualified technical personnel abroad. Having acquired photon gun capability and aerospace technology on parity with US 1970s-80s level, the communist country with capitalist trading practices now commands awesome authority. Spending around $40 billion annually on its military (ref: AP reports), this country's once peaceful coastal defense force, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has already acquired guided missile destroyers of the Sovremenny class from Russia. Its blue water capability with Russian carrier Kuznetsov (Varyag) and submarines will give it enormous power projection capability. Australia can be quickly overrun ala the stark reminder of the Darwin raid by the Imperial Japanese Navy in February 19, 1942. Australia's puny military still depends on Australia New Zealand US Treaty (ANZUS), requiring US military manpower to defend its landmass in case there is an invasion of Australia as attempted by Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto in the heights of the Pacific campaign in World War II.

THE END