US slogs through Iraqi quagmire

By PRITAM S RANA

Ever since the US president decided to topple Saddam Hussein using military force, Iraq has become a huge mess. The recent decision by President Bush to change the leadership of US commanders in the region will also yield little positive result if the same policy is pursued to control the insurgency and keep Iraq intact.

In 2003, US president Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair agreed to mount military operation to topple Saddam Hussein, who was increasingly defying US pressure. The US and allied military analysts calculated that Saddam's potential stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons could be lethal if they were provided to Al Qaida. Although lacking evidence linking Al Qaida with the Saddam regime, the US planners decided to go against Iraq despite outright opposition from many European and other countries. The decision proved costly.

Although the US and British forces quickly defeated Saddam's defenders who were greatly weakened by years of sanctions, they were faced by a brutal insurgency by Iraqis who were either Saddam loyalists, Sunnis and Shiite paramilitaries. As the US attempted to set up a democratic political system in a country long ruled by an iron-fisted dictator, the much oppressed Shiites emerged as the majority ethnic group. The shift in political power from Sunni-dominated Saddam regime to Shiites was widely resented among the Sunni community, which constituted the second largest ethnic group. Fearing dominance by Shiites, Sunnis launched a brutal insurgency, which was also backed by Al Qaida led but now deceased Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The third major ethnic group, the Kurds were Washington's allies against Saddam regime. They were already in a tussle with Sunnis over control of major oilfields in northern Iraq.

Iraq's three major ethnic groups were kept in a tight grip under Saddam's totalitarian rule. Once Saddam was gone, the communities began to reassert their roles and soon found themselves at each other's throats. Today there are Sunni and Shiite paramilitaries killing each other. Besides attacking US troops, bomb blasts, mortar attacks, drive-by shootings occur almost everyday in Baghdad and other cities. The life of ordinary Iraqis have been reduced to a hell with possibly hundreds of thousands of Iraqis already dead since 2003.

So, what is Washington's goal in Iraq? It can be said that initially in 2003, the US administration thought of getting rid of Saddam first. He was thought to be a too dangerous old enemy in post 9/11 world, a regional threat and possible Al Qaida partner. President Bush might also have thought that he could democratize Iraq after Saddam was flushed out. A new democratic Iraq, a partner in the Global War on Terror, could possibly be an example in the whole Middle East. Leftists and anti-US theorists have always argued that Iraq's oil wealth was great motivating factor for Washington's invasion of Iraq. They have said that the US wanted lucrative oil and rebuilding contracts including the entry of US multinationals into Iraq.

The US troops in Iraq are widely resented as occupiers by ordinary Iraqis. The insurgents seek to create maximum US casualties in order to force it leave Iraq. It was reported that President Bush has decided to replace top US commander in Iraq and also the theater commander who oversees the war in Afghanistan. The previous commanders are said to have favored US troop cuts which is also being demanded by the new Democrat majority Congress in the US. Appointing new commanders but pursuing same old policy may not help Washington. Besides, President Bush is said to favor increasing US troops in Iraq.

If the US leaves Iraq tomorrow, it is not at likely the killing would stop. In fact the US troops along with the fledgling Iraqi security forces are trying to curb sectarian violence. But past reports of Iraqi security men being involved in kidnapping and execution of rival ethnic groups is truly a disturbing sign. If Iraqis can't live together anymore, they may have to be divided permanently. Killings cannot continue in the name of preserving the territorial integrity of Iraq. Three states, one each for the Shiites, Sunnis and the Kurds can be carved out. However, the fair distribution of natural resources including oil would be a mounting challenge for the three communities, which could fuel more conflict.

One of the lamest arguments in Iraq is the blame that the US was somehow responsible for the horrendous civilian casualties, which are being in fact perpetrated by Iraqi insurgents. Analysts have argued that Iraq was a powder keg from much early on. It is said that just like former Yugoslavia, which was at peace with itself only under iron-fisted rule of Tito, ethnic animosities in Iraq was only subdued under Saddam's total dictatorship. One way or another, if Saddam had been toppled from within, Iraq would have easily exploded into a full-fledged civil war.

Elsewhere, the US failure to capture Osama bin Laden and Mullah Mohammed Omar is also eroding US credibility. With titanic intelligence budget and resources, failure to hunt down these men has put a question mark on US and NATO military operations in Afghanistan. The US technological edge and its superiority in trained manpower have not been successful to capture these fugitives in the barren mountains of Afghan-Pakistan border. Once US warfighters get grid coordinates of possible bin Laden hideout, they are supposed to swoop down like eagles and take'em out much in the same fashion as Zarqawi was eliminated last year in Iraq. To the chagrin of US commanders, this has not happened yet.

The US, however, seemed more successful in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, acting as a US proxy, recently wiped out Islamist forces from Somalia aiding a secular government to take power. A purported Al Qaida video tape recently showed its no.2, Ayman al-Zaywairi, urging Muslims to pounce upon the Ethiopians. As the Ethiopian juggernaut rolled into Somalia driving away the Islamists, US Navy warships blocked sea routes to check the escape of Islamists by sea. Al Qaida wanted Somalia to become the "Mecca of the Mujahedeen", alas it has failed for now. But, Somalis resent Ethiopians and this resentment and the backing of Islamists by Ethiopia's northern neighbor Eritrea should be a cause of concern for the Bush administration and Adis Ababa.

Beginning from January 9, 2007, US Special Forces aviation units have conducted a series of airstrikes have hit several Somali villages thought to be hideouts of Al Qaida operatives. A prominent Al Qaida figure, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed was reportedly killed by a US helicopter raid in southern Somalia recently. The US Joint Task Force Horn of Africa based in Djibouti, a former French colony, is active to hunt down the likes of Mohammed, who the US authorities say was behind 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

The US is engaged in a global struggle with Islamists while on the other hand it is mired in domestic unrest involving massive violence in Iraq. While Washington may have moral high ground in its war against the merciless Islamists, its policies in Iraq will continue to receive criticism as the killings continue unabated.