When dragon snarls at eagle

-Pritam S Rana

FLASHPOINT

The United States, the world’s sole superpower and China, the economic giant and the emerging superpower, are natural adversaries. But the two countries have fought only once in a major conflict in recent history – The Korean War (1950-1953) – which resulted in a stalemate and a divided Korean peninsula. As China expands its economic power, its military too is being fed with increased budgetary allocations in a bid to modernize its armed forces. The US, on the other hand, has stretched its military forces wide across the globe, thanks to its global commitments. Washington is engaged fruitlessly in Iraq since 2003. Also, its efforts to tame opponents in Afghanistan since 2001 are also yet to succeed.

In East Asia, China has the most powerful military potential in terms of its massive population, geography, industrial capacity and sheer numbers of its armed forces personnel, which currently has 2.3 million active troops. Japan, the world’s number two economy and Washington’s chief ally in the region, although bound by a mutual security pact with the US since 1945, appears to be charting a fresh course for its foreign policy. The Japanese want to establish their own sphere of influence as evident of their wooing of other emerging powers like India. However, Japan is too weak to counter China alone. It would need US military assistance in any eventual showdown with China. Japan’s recent overtures toward India can be understood as its aim to build new alliances and reduce dependence on the US.

China is rapidly building up its military muscle. It is producing advanced combat aircraft, both of indigenous and foreign design. It also wants to build an indigenously designed aircraft carrier, a major naval force multiplier platform. China’s new aircraft carrier and its follow-ups shall boost its naval power once only equaled in the region by Imperial Japanese Navy of World War II era.

China’s traditional headache, Taiwan, although impressively armed with US weapons, is too weak to stand up to China’s military might. China has assembled a vast array of ballistic missiles ranged against Taiwan, which has the potential to paralyze Taiwan’s nerve centers in one lethal volley at short notice. The US supplied Patriot air defense batteries in Taiwanese service would be incapable of intercepting all but a few incoming Chinese warheads.

But it is not easy for China to seize Taiwan without facing massive resistance. The US, Taiwan’s traditional security gurantor, can block Chinese attempt to storm the breakaway island state. The US Pacific Fleet’s combat power is too awesome to allow Chinese ships to cross the Taiwan Straits from the mainland with ease. China also lacks a large airlift capability to mount a massive airborne operation against Taiwan. Even if China later acquires this capability, Taiwanese air force equipped with modern US and French made fighter jets, backed by US carrier based fighters, have the power to negate any such Chinese attempt to intrude Taiwanese airspace. Chinese generals, therefore, cannot hope to replicate Nazi Germany’s successful takeover of Crete in the Mediterranean at the heights of World War II (1941).

But the trend is moving toward China’s favor as it modernizes its armed forces by pouring more money from its economic success. China is rapidly inducting Russian made Su-27 ‘Flanker’, a fourth generation advanced fighter aircraft designed to best US F-15s, into its service. It is manufacturing these long endurance aircraft equipped with advanced avionics and deadly air-to-air missiles with license from cash hungry Russia. Russia is more than willing to sell advanced weaponry to China. Russia has also drastically boosted China’s ground based air defenses by supplying S300 air defense missiles systems, which also have ballistic missile defense capability.

In terms of quality military manpower, the US and Taiwan have the edge for now. For example, the US and Taiwanese pilots are better trained with more flying hours per year of training than their Chinese counterparts. But this trend is shifting as China’s new material prosperity allows it to pour more money into military training, maneuvers and more frequent rehearsals.

China and Russia recently conducted joint exercises in Chinese territory. Both Russia and China are also busy forming a counter alliance to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The new axis, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which pairs Russia and China along with some other Central Asian states, is rapidly seeking to recruit some other remaining states into its camp, instead of them joining NATO. It is to be seen if Moscow and China’s romance would also extend to the Far East.

Keeping in mind China’s growing airpower, the US deployed advanced, radar evading F-22 Raptor interceptors in Okinawa, Japan early this year. The F-22 has just entered US Air Force service and it is the US military’s top-of-the-line silver bullet fighter aircraft. However, there are only few of them around as they are extremely expensive, only US seems to be able to afford them. Analysts said the US wants to sell these advanced warplanes to Japan. Japan’s air force currently has US supplied F-15s as its frontline fighter aircraft, which can be matched or outclassed by China’s Su-27s.

The US can also count on the powerful Japanese navy in joint maneuvers against China in any regional conflict. However, as mentioned earlier, Japan’s hawkish government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Abe has resigned since) appeared to favor an independent foreign policy in recent times. It might indicate that Japan might choose not to intervene in any US-China conflict, triggered most likely by any flare-up in the Taiwan Straits. The current Japanese constitution also forbids military expeditions beyond Japanese home waters.

The most ghastly scenario would be if any armed conflict between the two giants, the US and China, extends to the Chinese mainland. The US and its ally Taiwan (provided Taiwan agrees to fight inside Chinese mainland) would fare to be caught in a protracted and costly war a.k.a. Iraq, which might eventually outlast US determination to fight. The Chinese mainland is favorable to Chinese government forces, where skillful propaganda by Beijing can portray the US as a foreign occupying power rather than any liberator of the Chinese people. The lessons of the Korean War should be too fresh in the minds of American civilian and military leaders if they choose to engage the Chinese military in their own homeland. The modern Taiwan also lacks the appeal to arouse public opinion in the mainland as it is rapidly moving toward formal independence, a break from its past Kuomintang ethos as a pan-Chinese political entity.

Despite indications that hint adversarial relationship, the US and China are firmly interlinked by trade and economic ties. Besides being the major trade partner of the US, China has bought US debt which allows financing of Washington’s war in Iraq and Afghanistan. China’s humungous foreign currency reserves which totaled some $1.33 trillion in June 2007, allows it to boost its military spending, which officially stood at $36.6 billion in 2006. The US and other observers disagree and say Beijing spends much more, perhaps two or three times more than the announced figure. The Americans and the Japanese are simply worried about growing military spending by Beijing and have warned that they might be compelled to review their own security posture if there is continued lack of transparency in this issue.

Despite occasional rifts with the US, China is no mood to fight and risk global economic collapse. The cost of such a conflict could be too heavy for the Chinese to sustain. Even if China overwhelms Taiwan with military might, it would be a pyrrhic victory, for much of the prosperous country’s spoils would be lost. Beijing, instead, wants to incorporate Taiwan peacefully in the same manner as Hong Kong and Macau. It is willing to concede total control of Taiwan, parceling out internal self rule in exchange for sovereignty. China appears to be following a course as prescribed by Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese warrior-philosopher:

“The one who figures on victory at headquarters before even doing battle is the one who has the most strategic factors on his side.”

prittwitz@hotmail.com

August 21, 2007

Edited: September 13, 2007

THE END

Pritam S Rana worked as a sub-editor for The Kathmandu Post national daily in Kathmandu, Nepal from 2004 to 2007. He is working to complete his master’s degree in political science from Tribhuvan University, Nepal. He is seeking a new writing career as he moves to the US in 2007. He has been published previously in various leading newspapers and online portals in Nepal.