Indo-Pak Standoff

How their forces compare in the eventuality of war

-Published in Space Time Today, Thursday, January 10, 2002

Since the attack on the Indian parliament some week ago by militants sopposedly based in Pakistan, relations between the two giant South Asian neighbors have been chilly. There were reports of troop buildup in both sides of the Indo-Pak border. the tension has continued despite presence of both Indian and Pakistani leaders at the eleventh SAARC summit in Kathmandu. The handshake between Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee has been seen by observers as a gesture of warming relations between the two countries. However, tension remains, as India is demanding that Pakistan crackdown on groups which it [India] suspects are behind the parliament attack. Pakistan has said it will do its best, but this hasn't satisfied India.

Just after the attack on parliament by gunmen and suicide bombers, India accused groups based in Pakistan for the attacks. Some Indian commentators talked of launching surgical strikes against what they call terrorist camps inside pakistan controlled Kashmir. This action would be modeled on the US campaign against terror in Afghanistan. Pakistani president Musharraf commented that any adventurism on India's part against his nation would be met by force. The option available with India in such a strike would be to use its larger air force. It could send strike aircraft to bomb suspected camps in Pakistan controlled Kashmir. But the iarcraft would have to face Pakistani anti-aircraft fire, both missiles and guns. Pakistani air defenses are stronger than those of the Taliban. Besides ground based air defense systems, Pakisatni air force is powerful. Pakistan fields highly capable US built F-16 fighters, which could seriously jeopardize Indian attempts to violate Pakistani airspace. Besides, the fear of escalation [of violence] is too great. Any small military action could go out of control and spread elsewhere.

Both India and Pakistan are now nuclear powers. Not only do they have nuclear bombs but also the means to deliver them. india by far, according to experts, has greater number of nuclear weapons. But numbers matter less, for effects of these weapons are far too deadly. Both countries have developed or purchased short and medium range ballistic missiles to deliver nuclear weapons. ballistic missiles are almost unstoppable means of delivering nuclear weapons. The US is developing National Missile Defense (NMD) system to counter threat of ballistic missiles. It is reasonable to believe that many ballistic missiles possessed by India and Pakistan are on alert and on ready to fire positions since the escalation of tension.

Tens of thousands of army troops have been on alert due to tension between India and Pakistan. Indian Army is 1.2 million strong while the smaller Pakistan Army counts on to about 600,000 personnel. Indian Army also has about 3,500 tanks comapred to about Pakistan's about 2,000. The number of modern tanks is greater with India while Pakistan also has a few hundred very modern T-80 tanks purchased from Ukraine. To counter this threat, India purchased a few hundred more advanced T-90 tanks from Russia. both India and Pakistan are also building indigenous tanks by the names of Arjun and Al Khalid, respectively. Mechanization in armies of both countries is weak. India has three armored divisions. A division is a large unit of up to 14,000 troops. Armored divisions have about 250 tanks andd similar number of armored personnel carriers, artillery, engineers and other support arms. Pakistan has two armored divisions. Besides, the armored units, Indian army fields 27 infantry divisions. pakistan army has 19 divisions. Only India with its larger army has the ability to mount offensive against Pakistan if it chooses to do so. The Pakistan Army, on the other hand, is sufficient for defense but incapable of launching large offensive on India. Many observers believe by arming and training Kashmiri militants, pakistan has managed to tie down almost a third of India's army strength to fighting insurgency in Kashmir. Some believe this is a part of Pakistan's military strategy.

In terms of air power, both countries lack many of the sophisticated modern systems like those possessed by the US. Indian Air Force is large with over seven hundred warplanes. Pakistan Air Force is much smaller with up to 450 combat aircraft. Indian Air Force is almost totally equipped aircraft of Russian origin. Pkaistan has largely imported aircraft from China fater it was unable to obtain quality aircraft from the US. Some of the modern Indian fighter aircraft like the Su-30, MiG-29 and Mirage 2000are very capable. But their effectiveness is limited due to lack of support systems like Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) in the Indian Air Force. Older Indian strike aircraft like the MiG-23 lack new Electronic Counter Measure (ECM) to defeat ground based air defenses. The Indian Air Force is simply incapable of fighting a sustained air campaign like the Persian Gulf War or even the US strikes against Afghanistan. The Pakistan Air Force is even limited in its capability. Its only modern aircraft the US built F-16s are capable of both air to air and air to ground combat. But, although F-16s are very gooda s tactical fighters, their effectiveness in air combat has been marred by lack of medium range air to air missiles. The aircraft Pakistan has purchased from China like the Q-5 and F-7 are poor in terms of their combat capability.

In terms of naval capabilities, India leads Pakistan for it possesses an aircraft carrier, which deploys British built Harrier jet fighters.The number of other warships like destroyers, corvettes and patrol boats and submarines is greater in Indian service. India has indigenously designed Delhi class destroyers, Kashin class destroyers, Tarantul class corvettes and Nanuchka missile boats all armed with surface warfare missiles. India has over ten Kilo submarines. Pakistan has ageing Gearing destroyers armed with harpoon anti-ship misiles. It also has Chinese built missile boats. Among Pakistani submarines, the Agosta class French built models are superior boats. In the event of major conflict between India and Pakistan, Indian strategy would be to blockade Pakistani ports with its Navy. Pakistani warships, particularly its submarines would have the job of breaking the blockade.

India nad Pakistan have been locked in bitter argument over the disputed territory of Kashmir. This has been a major point of consternation between the two countries. Unless solved, Kashmir issue will continue to divide these two countries that share many cultural aspects. From time to time India and Pakistan flex their muscles and it seems war is imminent. It is for these countries to decide that war in modern sense is not only the cost of lives but also a huge loss in terms of money. Modern wars are terribly expensive.
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Sourced from Janes Information Group materials including Fleet Command, Janes Defense Weekly and other literature. The author has special permission to cite Janes as a source of defense news and information.